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中国西北地区气候变化及相关气候灾害的空间格局。

Spatial patterns of climate change and associated climate hazards in Northwest China.

机构信息

Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100094, China.

International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Beijing, 100094, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Jun 27;13(1):10418. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-37349-w.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-023-37349-w
PMID:37369846
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10300112/
Abstract

Northwest China (NWC) is experiencing noticeable climate change accompanied with increasing impacts of climate hazards induced by changes in climate extremes. Towards developing climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the negative climatic impacts on both the ecosystem and socioeconomic system of the region, this study investigates systematically the spatial patterns of climate change and the associated climate hazards across NWC based on high resolution reanalysis climate dataset for the period 1979 to 2018. We find that NWC overall is under a warming and wetting transition in climate with change rate of temperature and precipitation around 0.49 °C/10a and 22.8 mm/10a respectively. Characteristics of climate change over the NWC however vary considerably in space. According to significance of long-term trends in both temperature and aridity index for each 0.1° × 0.1° grids, five types of climate change are identified across NWC, including warm-wetting, warm-drying, warm without wetting, wetting without warming and unchanging. The warm-wetting zone accounts for the largest proportion of the region (41%) and mainly locates in the arid or semi-arid northwestern NWC. Our findings show most region of NWC is under impacts of intensifying heatwave and rainstorm due to significant increases in high temperature extremes and precipitation extremes. The warming but without wetting zone is found under a more severe impact of heatwave, particularly for areas near northern Mount. Qinling and northern Loess Plateau. Areas with stronger wetting trend is suffering more from rainstorm.

摘要

中国西北地区（NWC）正经历着显著的气候变化，同时气候变化极端事件导致的气候灾害的影响也在不断增加。为了制定适应气候变化的策略，以减轻该地区生态系统和社会经济系统受到的负面气候影响，本研究基于高分辨率再分析气候数据集，对 1979 年至 2018 年期间中国西北地区的气候变化空间格局及相关气候灾害进行了系统研究。我们发现，中国西北地区整体上处于气候变暖增湿的转变过程中，气温和降水的变化率分别约为 0.49°C/10a 和 22.8mm/10a。然而，中国西北地区的气候变化特征在空间上存在很大差异。根据每个 0.1°×0.1°格点上气温和干旱指数长期趋势的显著性，将中国西北地区划分为五种气候变化类型，包括暖湿、暖干、暖但不增湿、增湿但不增暖以及不变。暖湿区占该地区的最大比例（41%），主要位于中国西北部干旱或半干旱地区。我们的研究结果表明，由于高温极端事件和降水极端事件的显著增加，中国西北地区大部分地区正受到热浪和暴雨加剧的影响。变暖但不增湿区受到热浪的影响更为严重，特别是在秦岭北部和黄土高原北部附近地区。增湿趋势较强的地区正遭受更多暴雨的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1fbe/10300112/7737783267b7/41598_2023_37349_Fig8_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1fbe/10300112/7737783267b7/41598_2023_37349_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1fbe/10300112/3086804630be/41598_2023_37349_Fig1_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1fbe/10300112/c11e270d710d/41598_2023_37349_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1fbe/10300112/77daa28aab62/41598_2023_37349_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1fbe/10300112/8ff5cb1552c8/41598_2023_37349_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1fbe/10300112/7737783267b7/41598_2023_37349_Fig8_HTML.jpg

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