Qian Qian, Shi Jing
Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Accid Anal Prev. 2023 Sep;190:107189. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2023.107189. Epub 2023 Jun 28.
This study aims to compare the accident injury severity of e-bikes with that of other types of two-wheelers based on accident data and to analyze the factors influencing them. Using 1015 police accident records from Zhangjiakou City in 2020 and 2021, the accident injury severity of e-bikes was firstly compared with that of other two-wheelers based on five levels of accident injury severity classified according to the records. Two ordered Probit regression models were secondly used to compare the factors influencing the accident injury severity of e-bikes with that of other two-wheelers and the magnitude of their effects. At the same time, the contributions of each influential factor to the degree of accident injury of two-wheelers were estimated with the assistance of classification trees. Results show that e-bikes are closer to bicycles than motorcycles in terms of injury severities and the factors influencing them, in which the factors "accident configuration," "division of responsibility for the accident," and "collision with a heavy vehicle or four-wheeled vehicle" are significant. Based on the findings, potential measures are suggested to reduce e-bike accident casualties, such as improving rider education, ensuring speed limit enforcement, promoting safety equipment wearing, and making road design friendly to non-motorized and elderly riders. The results of this study can provide an essential reference for traffic management and rider education measures on e-bikes.
本研究旨在基于事故数据比较电动自行车与其他类型两轮车的事故伤害严重程度,并分析影响它们的因素。利用2020年和2021年张家口市1015份警方事故记录,首先根据记录中划分的五个事故伤害严重程度等级,将电动自行车的事故伤害严重程度与其他两轮车进行比较。其次,使用两个有序Probit回归模型来比较影响电动自行车与其他两轮车事故伤害严重程度的因素及其影响程度。同时,借助分类树估计每个影响因素对两轮车事故伤害程度的贡献。结果表明,在伤害严重程度及其影响因素方面,电动自行车比摩托车更接近自行车,其中“事故形态”“事故责任划分”以及“与重型车辆或四轮车辆碰撞”等因素具有显著性。基于这些发现,建议采取如加强骑手教育、确保限速执法、推广佩戴安全装备以及使道路设计对非机动车和老年骑手友好等潜在措施,以减少电动自行车事故伤亡。本研究结果可为电动自行车的交通管理和骑手教育措施提供重要参考。