Park E S, Golding J, Carswell F, Stewart-Brown S
Arch Dis Child. 1986 Jul;61(7):642-6. doi: 10.1136/adc.61.7.642.
Information was collected at birth and at 5 and 10 years of age on the national cohort of children born in one week of April 1970 (the Child Health and Education Study). For 11 465 children, information on wheezing attacks before 5 years was compared with reports of wheezing occurring in the 12 months before the interview at 10 years. Of 2345 children who had had at least one wheezing attack before their fifth birthday, 80% (1869) were free of wheeze at 10 years; only 8% of children who had just one wheezing attack by 5 years wheezed in their 10th year. The more attacks the child had had by the age of 5 the higher the risk of continuing to wheeze at the age of 10, but there were no major differences in prognosis according to the age of the first attack. Half of the children who had been labelled asthmatic at the age of 5 were wheezing at the age of 10 compared with an eighth of those with wheezing not so labelled. There was little evidence to suggest that the prognosis of wheezing with bronchitis was markedly different from that of children with other episodes of wheezing provided they were not said to be asthmatic. A longer follow up is necessary to ascertain whether remission at the age of 10 is followed by relapse later.
收集了1970年4月某一周出生的全国儿童队列在出生时、5岁和10岁时的信息(儿童健康与教育研究)。对于11465名儿童,将5岁前喘息发作的信息与10岁访谈前12个月内喘息发作的报告进行了比较。在2345名5岁前至少有一次喘息发作的儿童中,80%(1869名)在10岁时无喘息;5岁时仅有一次喘息发作的儿童在10岁时仅有8%喘息。儿童在5岁前发作次数越多,10岁时继续喘息的风险越高,但根据首次发作年龄,预后无重大差异。5岁时被诊断为哮喘的儿童中有一半在10岁时仍喘息,而未被如此诊断的喘息儿童中这一比例为八分之一。几乎没有证据表明,支气管炎所致喘息的预后与其他喘息发作儿童(前提是未被诊断为哮喘)的预后有明显不同。需要更长时间的随访来确定10岁时缓解后是否会复发。