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2050 年的植物育种可能(和不可能)是什么样的?

What plant breeding may (and may not) look like in 2050?

机构信息

International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), Rabat, Morocco.

Department of Plant Breeding, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Lomma, Sweden.

出版信息

Plant Genome. 2024 Mar;17(1):e20368. doi: 10.1002/tpg2.20368. Epub 2023 Jul 16.

Abstract

At the turn of 2000 many authors envisioned future plant breeding. Twenty years after, which of those authors' visions became reality or not, and which ones may become so in the years to come. After two decades of debates, climate change is a "certainty," food systems shifted from maximizing farm production to reducing environmental impact, and hopes placed into GMOs are mitigated by their low appreciation by consumers. We revise herein how plant breeding may raise or reduce genetic gains based on the breeder's equation. "Accuracy of Selection" has significantly improved by many experimental-scale field and laboratory implements, but also by vulgarizing statistical models, and integrating DNA markers into selection. Pre-breeding has really promoted the increase of useful "Genetic Variance." Shortening "Recycling Time" has seen great progression, to the point that achieving a denominator equal to "1" is becoming a possibility. Maintaining high "Selection Intensity" remains the biggest challenge, since adding any technology results in a higher cost per progeny, despite the steady reduction in cost per datapoint. Furthermore, the concepts of variety and seed enterprise might change with the advent of cheaper genomic tools to monitor their use and the promotion of participatory or citizen science. The technological and societal changes influence the new generation of plant breeders, moving them further away from field work, emphasizing instead the use of genomic-based selection methods relying on big data. We envisage what skills plant breeders of tomorrow might need to address challenges, and whether their time in the field may dwindle.

摘要

在 2000 年之交,许多作者都对未来的植物育种进行了设想。20 年后,这些设想中哪些已经成为现实,哪些可能在未来成为现实。经过二十年的争论,气候变化已经成为“必然”,食品系统从最大限度地提高农业生产转向减少对环境的影响,而消费者对转基因生物的低认可度也降低了人们对它们的期望。我们根据育种者方程,重新审视了植物育种如何提高或降低遗传增益。“选择准确性”已经通过许多实验规模的田间和实验室手段得到了显著提高,同时也通过普及统计模型和将 DNA 标记整合到选择中来实现。预育种确实促进了有用的“遗传方差”的增加。“循环时间”的缩短也取得了很大的进展,以至于达到分母等于“1”的目标成为了可能。保持高“选择强度”仍然是最大的挑战,因为添加任何技术都会导致每个后代的成本增加,尽管数据点的成本在稳步降低。此外,随着更便宜的基因组工具的出现,以监测其使用情况,并促进参与式或公民科学,品种和种子企业的概念可能会发生变化。技术和社会变革影响着新一代的植物育种者,使他们进一步远离田间工作,转而强调使用基于基因组的选择方法,这些方法依赖于大数据。我们设想一下,未来的植物育种者可能需要具备哪些技能来应对挑战,以及他们在田间的时间是否会减少。

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