Al-Khateeb Mohammed S, Abdulla Fayez A, Al-Delaimy Wael K
Civil Engineering Department, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan.
Civil Engineering Department, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan.
Environ Res. 2023 Nov 1;236(Pt 1):116741. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116741. Epub 2023 Jul 25.
The association between weather conditions and the spread of COVID-19 was demonstrated by previous studies but focused on specific countries or investigated shorter periods of duration limiting the interpretation of the results.
To make an international comprehensive insight into the association between the weather conditions and the spread of COVID-19 by spanning many regions in the Northern and Southern hemispheres over a period of two years for the COVID-19 Outbreak.
The data were analyzed by using statistical description, linear and multiple regressions, and the Spearman rank correlation test. Daily and weekly COVID-19 cases, the average temperatures, Wind Speed, the amount of precipitation as well as the relative humidity rates were collected from Irbid, Jordan as the main location of analyses, as well as comparison cities and countries in both hemispheres.
we found that certain climate variables are significant factors in determining the transmission rate of COVID-19 worldwide. Where, The temperature in the northern hemisphere regions was the most important climate factor that affects the increase in the transmission rate of COVID-19 (Northern Hemisphere rs = -0.65; Irbid rs = -0.74995; P < 0.001), While in southern hemisphere, the climate factor that affects the increase in the transmission rate of COVID-19 was the humidity (rs = 0.55; P < 0.01), In addition, we found the negligible and oscillated effect of wind speed on the transmission rate of COVID-19 worldwide. Moreover, we found that in Irbid 82% of COVID-19 cases were in the fall and winter seasons, while in summer the percentage of COVID-19 cases didn't exceed 3% during the total study period.
This study can help develop international strategies and policies against COVID-19-related pandemic peaks, especially during the colder seasons in the Northern Hemisphere regions from the first month of fall to the last month of winter.
先前的研究证明了天气状况与新冠病毒传播之间的关联，但这些研究聚焦于特定国家或调查的时间段较短，限制了对结果的解读。
通过对新冠疫情爆发两年期间南北半球多个地区进行研究，全面深入地了解天气状况与新冠病毒传播之间的国际关联。
采用统计描述、线性回归和多元回归以及斯皮尔曼等级相关检验对数据进行分析。从约旦伊尔比德作为主要分析地点，以及南北半球的对比城市和国家收集每日和每周的新冠病例数、平均气温、风速、降水量以及相对湿度率。
我们发现某些气候变量是决定全球新冠病毒传播率的重要因素。其中，北半球地区的温度是影响新冠病毒传播率上升的最重要气候因素（北半球rs = -0.65；伊尔比德rs = -0.74995；P < 0.001），而在南半球，影响新冠病毒传播率上升的气候因素是湿度（rs = 0.55；P < 0.01）。此外，我们发现风速对全球新冠病毒传播率的影响可忽略不计且呈波动状态。而且，我们发现在伊尔比德，82%的新冠病例发生在秋冬季节，而在整个研究期间，夏季的新冠病例百分比不超过3%。
本研究有助于制定应对与新冠疫情相关的大流行高峰的国际战略和政策，特别是在北半球地区从秋季第一个月到冬季最后一个月的较冷季节。
