1990年至2030年睾丸癌发病率和死亡率的长期趋势估计。
Estimates of over-time trends in incidence and mortality of testicular cancer from 1990 to 2030.
作者信息
Cai Qiliang, Chen Yegang, Zhang Dingrong, Pan Jiancheng, Xie Zunke, Xu Chenjie, Li Shu, Zhang Xinyu, Gao Ying, Hou Jie, Guo Xuemei, Zhou Xiaodong, Zhang Baoshuai, Ma Fei, Zhang Wei, Lin Guiting, Xin Zhongcheng, Niu Yuanjie, Wang Yaogang
机构信息
Department of Urology, the Second Hospital of Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin Institute of Urology, Tianjin 300211, China.
School of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin 300070, China.
出版信息
Transl Androl Urol. 2020 Apr;9(2):182-195. doi: 10.21037/tau.2020.02.22.
BACKGROUND
This study aims to explore and project the temporal trends in incidence and mortality of testicular cancer. Moreover, it can provide theoretical guidance for the rational allocation of health resources.
METHODS
This study analyzed existing data on testicular cancer morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2016 and predicted time-varying trends of age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) from 2017 to 2030 in different ages, regions and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile sub-groups.
RESULT
Globally, numbers of testicular cancer cases in 2016 [66,833; 95% uncertainty interval (UI), 64,487-69,736] are 1.8 times larger than in 1990 (37,231; 95% UI, 36,116-38,515). The testicular cancer-related death cases increased slightly from 8,394 (95% UI, 7,980-8,904) in 1990 to 8,651 (95% UI, 8,292-9,027) in 2016. In aspect of ASIR, the data showed an up-trend from 0.74 (95% UI, 0.72-0.77) in 1990 to 0.88 (95% UI, 0.85-0.92) in 2016. The ASDR of testicular cancer declined from 0.18 (95% UI, 0.17-0.19) in 1990 to 0.12 (95% UI, 0.11-0.12) in 2016. From 2017 to 2030, predictions of trends in testicular cancer indicate that the ASIRs of most SDI countries are rising, but the ASDRs trends in testicular cancer will decrease.
CONCLUSIONS
By analyzing the available and reliable data in different ages, regions and SDI, this study shows a significant upward trend in incidence and a slow upward trend in mortality of testicular cancer from 1990 to 2016, and simultaneously, predicts the increase of ASIR and the downward trend of ASDR in 2017-2030.
背景
本研究旨在探究并预测睾丸癌发病率和死亡率的时间趋势。此外，它可为卫生资源的合理分配提供理论指导。
方法
本研究分析了1990年至2016年睾丸癌发病率和死亡率的现有数据，并预测了2017年至2030年不同年龄、地区和社会人口指数（SDI）五分位数亚组的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）的时变趋势。
结果
在全球范围内，2016年睾丸癌病例数[66,833；95%不确定区间（UI），64,487 - 69,736]是1990年（37,231；95% UI，36,116 - 38,515）的1.8倍。睾丸癌相关死亡病例从1990年的8,394例（95% UI，7,980 - 8,904）略有增加至2016年的8,651例（95% UI，8,292 - 9,027）。在ASIR方面，数据显示从1990年的0.74（95% UI，0.72 - 0.77）呈上升趋势至2016年的0.88（95% UI，0.85 - 0.92）。睾丸癌的ASDR从1990年的0.18（95% UI，0.17 - 0.19）降至2016年的0.12（95% UI，0.11 - 0.12）。从2017年到至2030年，睾丸癌趋势预测表明，大多数SDI国家的ASIR在上升，但睾丸癌的ASDR趋势将下降。
结论
通过分析不同年龄、地区和SDI的可用可靠数据，本研究表明1990年至2016年睾丸癌发病率呈显著上升趋势，死亡率呈缓慢上升趋势，同时预测2017 - 2030年ASIR上升和ASDR下降趋势。
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