Guzick D S, Wilkes C, Jones H W
Fertil Steril. 1986 Oct;46(4):663-7. doi: 10.1016/s0015-0282(16)49645-7.
Data on 575 couples undergoing 1057 consecutive cycles of in vitro fertilization (IVF) were used to calculate cumulative pregnancy rates for repeated IVF cycles. Excluding preclinical abortions and couples in whom the male partner had poor semen parameters, calculated cumulative pregnancy rates for cycles 1 to 6 were 13.6%, 24.8%, 37.2%, 47.8%, 52.2%, and 59.6%, respectively. A parametric model used to fit these data yielded a strong correlation between observed and predicted pregnancy rates (r = 0.99, P less than 0.001). Predicted cumulative pregnancy rates after 9 and 12 cycles were 75% and 84%, respectively. Excluding preclinical abortions, the pregnancy rate per cycle was approximately constant, at approximately 15% over repeated cycles. As the cost of IVF declines and as treatment cycles become more easily tolerated, persistence in IVF can lead to successful pregnancy for a large proportion of couples.
对575对夫妇进行的1057个连续体外受精（IVF）周期的数据进行分析，以计算重复IVF周期的累积妊娠率。排除临床前流产以及男性伴侣精液参数不佳的夫妇，第1至6个周期的计算累积妊娠率分别为13.6%、24.8%、37.2%、47.8%、52.2%和59.6%。用于拟合这些数据的参数模型显示，观察到的妊娠率与预测的妊娠率之间存在很强的相关性（r = 0.99，P小于0.001）。9个周期和12个周期后的预测累积妊娠率分别为75%和84%。排除临床前流产，每个周期的妊娠率大致恒定，在重复周期中约为15%。随着IVF成本的下降以及治疗周期更容易耐受，坚持进行IVF可以使很大一部分夫妇成功妊娠。
