Predictions transform memories: How expected versus unexpected events are integrated or separated in memory.

Our brains constantly generate predictions about the environment based on prior knowledge. Many of the events we experience are consistent with these predictions, while others might be inconsistent with prior knowledge and thus violate our predictions. To guide future behavior, the memory system must be able to strengthen, transform, or add to existing knowledge based on the accuracy of our predictions. We synthesize recent evidence suggesting that when an event is consistent with our predictions, it leads to neural integration between related memories, which is associated with enhanced associative memory, as well as memory biases. Prediction errors, in turn, can promote both neural integration and separation, and lead to multiple mnemonic outcomes. We review these findings and how they interact with factors such as memory reactivation, prediction error strength, and task goals, to offer insight into what determines memory for events that violate our predictions. In doing so, this review brings together recent neural and behavioral research to advance our understanding of how predictions shape memory, and why.