1950 年至 2022 年中国东南部法定传染病的年发病率和病死率及其与社会经济发展的关系。

Annual incidence and fatality rates of notifiable infectious diseases in southeast China from 1950 to 2022 and relationship to socioeconomic development.

机构信息

School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.

Department of Acute Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China.

出版信息

J Glob Health. 2023 Sep 8;13:04107. doi: 10.7189/jogh.13.04107.

DOI:10.7189/jogh.13.04107

PMID:37681663

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10486175/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Over the past 70 years, China has advanced significantly in the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases while simultaneously undergoing a socioeconomic transformation, making it a useful source of data for analysing relationships between public health policy and the control of infectious diseases.

METHODS

We collected data on the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases and associated fatalities in Jiangsu province in southeast China from the Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Provincial Institute of Parasitic Diseases, and the Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System. We compared data from different historical periods using descriptive statistical methods, joinpoint regression, and correlation analysis.

RESULTS

During 1950-2022, 75 754 008 cases of 46 notifiable infectious diseases were reported in Jiangsu, with an average annual incidence was 1679.49 per 100 000 population and a fatality rate of 1.82 per 1000 persons. The incidence of classes A-B decreased (average annual percent change (AAPC) = -2.1) during the entire study period, while the incidence of class C increased (AAPC = 10.8) after 2004. The incidence of intestinal diseases (AAPC = -4.4) and vector-borne and zoonotic diseases (AAPC = -8.1) decreased rapidly, while the incidence of sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases (AAPC = 1.8) increased. The number of medical and health institutions and the per capita gross domestic product correlated negatively with the annual incidence of diseases in classes A-B, but not with fatality rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the annual incidence of many severe infectious diseases has decreased in Jiangsu since 1950, the incidence of sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases increased. Socioeconomic growth and sustainable investment in health systems are associated with better control of infectious diseases.

摘要

背景

过去 70 年来，中国在传染病防治方面取得了显著进展，同时经历了社会经济转型，为分析公共卫生政策与传染病控制之间的关系提供了有价值的数据来源。

方法

我们从江苏省疾病预防控制中心、江苏省寄生虫病防治研究所和全国传染病疫情报告信息系统收集了江苏省法定传染病发病和死亡数据。采用描述性统计方法、Joinpoint 回归和相关性分析比较了不同历史时期的数据。

结果

1950 年至 2022 年，江苏省共报告 46 种法定传染病 7575.4 万例，年均发病率为 1679.49/10 万，死亡率为 1.82/1000 人。甲乙类传染病发病率（年均变化百分比（AAPC）=-2.1）在整个研究期间呈下降趋势，而 2004 年后丙类传染病发病率（AAPC=10.8）呈上升趋势。肠道传染病（AAPC=-4.4）和虫媒及动物源性传染病（AAPC=-8.1）的发病率迅速下降，而性传播和血源传染病（AAPC=1.8）的发病率则呈上升趋势。医疗卫生机构数量和人均国内生产总值与甲乙类传染病的年发病率呈负相关，但与死亡率无关。