Instituto Tecnológico Vale, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2019 Apr 11;14(4):e0215229. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0215229. eCollection 2019.
Although the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasing worldwide, few studies have attempted to forecast these impacts on Amazon Tropical Forest. In this study, we estimated the impact of climate change on Amazonian avian assemblages considering range shifts, species loss, vulnerability of ecosystem functioning, future effectiveness of current protected areas and potential climatically stable areas for conservation actions. Species distribution modelling based on two algorithms and three different scenarios of climate change was used to forecast 501 avian species, organized on main ecosystem functions (frugivores, insectivores and nectarivores) for years 2050 and 2070. Considering the entire study area, we estimated that between 4 and 19% of the species will find no suitable habitat. Inside the currently established protected areas, species loss could be over 70%. Our results suggest that frugivores are the most sensitive guild, which could bring consequences on seed dispersal functions and on natural regeneration. Moreover, we identified the western and northern parts of the study area as climatically stable. Climate change will potentially affect avian assemblages in southeastern Amazonia with detrimental consequences to their ecosystem functions. Information provided here is essential to conservation practitioners and decision makers to help on planning their actions.
尽管气候变化对生物多样性的影响在全球范围内不断加剧，但很少有研究试图预测气候变化对亚马逊热带雨林的影响。在这项研究中，我们考虑到物种分布范围的变化、物种灭绝、生态系统功能的脆弱性、当前保护区的未来有效性以及可能的气候稳定区，评估了气候变化对亚马逊鸟类群落的影响，以采取保护行动。我们使用了两种算法和三种不同的气候变化情景，对 501 种鸟类物种进行了基于物种分布模型的预测，这些物种按主要生态系统功能（食果者、食虫者和食蜜者）进行组织，预测时间为 2050 年和 2070 年。考虑到整个研究区域，我们估计有 4%至 19%的物种将找不到适宜的栖息地。在目前已建立的保护区内，物种灭绝的比例可能超过 70%。我们的研究结果表明，食果者是最敏感的类群，这可能会对种子传播功能和自然再生产生影响。此外，我们发现研究区域的西部和北部是气候稳定区。气候变化可能会对亚马逊东南部的鸟类群落产生不利影响，从而影响其生态系统功能。这里提供的信息对保护工作者和决策者至关重要，有助于他们规划行动。
