Global Change and Conservation Lab, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Program. Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65 (Viikinkaari 1), FI-00014, Helsinki, Finland.
Amazon Research Team, Department of Biology, University of Turku, 20500, Turku, Finland.
Nat Commun. 2020 Jun 11;11(1):2957. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16792-7.
Protected areas (PAs) are essential to prevent further biodiversity loss yet their effectiveness varies largely with governance and external threats. Although methodological advances have permitted assessments of PA effectiveness in mitigating deforestation, we still lack similar studies for the impact of PAs on wildlife populations. Here we use an innovative combination of matching methods and hurdle-mixed models with a large-scale and long-term dataset for Finland's large carnivore species. We show that the national PA network does not support higher densities than non-protected habitat for 3 of the 4 species investigated. For some species, PA effects interact with region or time, i.e., wolverine densities decreased inside PAs over the study period and lynx densities increased inside eastern PAs. We support the application of matching methods in combination of additional analytical frameworks for deeper understanding of conservation impacts on wildlife populations. These methodological advances are crucial for preparing ambitious PA targets post-2020.
保护区对于防止生物多样性进一步丧失至关重要，但它们的有效性在很大程度上取决于治理和外部威胁。尽管方法上的进步已经允许评估保护区在减轻森林砍伐方面的有效性，但我们仍然缺乏类似的研究来评估保护区对野生动物种群的影响。在这里，我们使用一种创新的匹配方法和障碍混合模型的组合，结合芬兰大型食肉动物物种的大规模长期数据集。我们表明，对于调查的 4 个物种中的 3 个，国家保护区网络并没有支持比非保护区更高的密度。对于一些物种，保护区的影响与地区或时间相互作用，即，在研究期间，狼獾的密度在保护区内下降，而在东部保护区内，猞猁的密度增加。我们支持将匹配方法与其他分析框架结合使用，以更深入地了解对野生动物种群的保护影响。这些方法上的进步对于制定 2020 年后雄心勃勃的保护区目标至关重要。
