Almarinez Billy Joel M, Amalin Divina M, Aviso Kathleen B, Cabezas Heriberto, Lao Angelyn R, Tan Raymond R
Department of Biology, De La Salle University, Manila 0922, Philippines.
Department of Chemical Engineering, De La Salle University, Manila 0922, Philippines.
Insects. 2023 Aug 29;14(9):731. doi: 10.3390/insects14090731.
Crop shifting is considered as an important strategy to secure future food supply in the face of climate change. However, use of this adaptation strategy needs to consider the risk posed by changes in the geographic range of pests that feed on selected crops. Failure to account for this threat can lead to disastrous results. Models can be used to give insights on how best to manage these risks. In this paper, the socioecological process graph technique is used to develop a network model of interactions among crops, invasive pests, and biological control agents. The model is applied to a prospective analysis of the potential entry of the Colorado potato beetle into the Philippines just as efforts are being made to scale up potato cultivation as a food security measure. The modeling scenarios indicate the existence of alternative viable pest control strategies based on the use of biological control agents. Insights drawn from the model can be used as the basis to ecologically engineer agricultural systems that are resistant to pests.
作物轮作被视为面对气候变化确保未来粮食供应的一项重要策略。然而，采用这种适应策略需要考虑以选定作物为食的害虫地理分布范围变化所带来的风险。若不考虑这一威胁，可能会导致灾难性后果。模型可用于深入了解如何最好地管理这些风险。本文运用社会生态过程图技术，构建了作物、入侵害虫和生物防治剂之间相互作用的网络模型。该模型应用于对科罗拉多马铃薯甲虫可能进入菲律宾的前瞻性分析，此时菲律宾正努力扩大马铃薯种植规模作为一项粮食安全措施。建模情景表明，基于生物防治剂的使用，存在其他可行的害虫控制策略。从该模型中获得的见解可作为对害虫具有抗性的农业系统进行生态设计的基础。
