Wang Jing, Zhang Xukun, Liu Wubin, Li Pei
School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350116, China.
Emergency Management Research Center, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, 350116, China.
Heliyon. 2023 Sep 12;9(9):e20080. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20080. eCollection 2023 Sep.
With the rapid development of internet information technology, online public opinion's influence is infinitely magnified, seriously threatening social security and national governance. It is significant to clarify the spatial and temporal evolution rules of online public opinion on major epidemics and its influencing factors for the governance and guidance of online public opinion on major epidemics. In this paper, the spatiotemporal evolution analysis model of online public opinion and an analysis model of influencing factors were constructed. We selected the Baidu index and microblog crawler text data at the early stage of COVID-19 as the research objects and analyzed the evolution of online public opinion during the time period by using the optimal segmentation method, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and text analysis method. The spatiotemporal evolutionary influences and their influence are further analyzed using the geographic probe factor detection method. The results showed that the evolution of online public opinion in the early stage of the epidemic was closely related to the event's evolution and the prevention and control effect. In the time dimension, the early evolution of online public opinion has prominent periodic characteristics. In the geospatial dimension, there are significant spatial agglomeration effects and spillover effects. In the cyberspace dimension, there are significant differences in online public opinion heat, hot topics, and netizens' emotional tendencies at different stages. Furthermore, the severity of the epidemic, the number of Internet users, the number of media reports and the region's attributes jointly affect the spatial and temporal evolution pattern of online public opinions about the epidemic. The research results provide decision-making references for the government and planners to effectively manage online public opinion on emergencies and improve the government's public opinion governance capacity and level.
随着互联网信息技术的飞速发展，网络舆论的影响力被无限放大，严重威胁着社会安全和国家治理。厘清重大疫情网络舆论的时空演化规律及其影响因素，对于重大疫情网络舆论的治理与引导具有重要意义。本文构建了网络舆论时空演化分析模型和影响因素分析模型。选取新冠肺炎疫情初期的百度指数和微博爬虫文本数据作为研究对象，运用最优分割法、空间自相关分析和文本分析法，对该时间段内的网络舆论演化进行分析。利用地理探测器因子探测法进一步分析时空演化影响及其作用。结果表明，疫情初期网络舆论的演化与事件发展及防控效果密切相关。在时间维度上，网络舆论早期演化具有突出的周期性特征。在地理空间维度上，存在显著的空间集聚效应和溢出效应。在网络空间维度上，不同阶段的网络舆论热度、热点话题及网民情感倾向存在显著差异。此外，疫情严重程度、网民数量、媒体报道数量和地区属性共同影响着疫情网络舆论的时空演化格局。研究结果为政府及规划者有效管理突发事件网络舆论、提升政府舆论治理能力和水平提供决策参考。
