Zhou Rui
Institute of Regional Modernization, Jiangsu Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, Nanjing, 210004, Jiangsu, China.
Heliyon. 2023 Sep 6;9(9):e19865. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19865. eCollection 2023 Sep.
The Yangtze River Economic Belt plays a crucial role in the economic development of China from the perspective of economic growth, as well as from the perspective of the goal of the emission peak and carbon neutrality. In this study, the dynamic and causal relationships among economic growth, energy consumption and CO emissions of the provinces and municipalities along the Yangtze River Economic Belt were analyzed using the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model. The results revealed that the economic growth and the changes in CO emissions in the current period are significantly influenced by the economic growth and CO emissions in the preceding period, while the energy consumptionin the current period is influenced by the economic growth, energy consumption and CO emissions in the preceding period. The results of the Granger causality test based on panel data suggested that among the three sets of causalities involving economic growth, energy consumption and CO emissions, only economic growth and CO emissions have one-way causality, while the other two sets of causalities are two-way. Further, the results of the impulse response function and variance decomposition showed significantly positive effects and a certain degree of path dependence among economic growth, energy consumption and CO emissions.
长江经济带在中国经济发展中，无论是从经济增长角度，还是从碳排放达峰和碳中和目标角度，都发挥着至关重要的作用。在本研究中，运用面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型分析了长江经济带沿线省市经济增长、能源消费与碳排放之间的动态关系和因果关系。结果表明，当期经济增长和碳排放变化受到上期经济增长和碳排放的显著影响，而当期能源消费受到上期经济增长、能源消费和碳排放的影响。基于面板数据的格兰杰因果检验结果表明，在经济增长、能源消费和碳排放这三组因果关系中，只有经济增长与碳排放存在单向因果关系，而其他两组因果关系是双向的。此外，脉冲响应函数和方差分解结果表明，经济增长、能源消费和碳排放之间存在显著的正向影响和一定程度的路径依赖。
