Wang Ting, Sun Chengwu, Yang Zheqi
Faculty of Marxism, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, 130000, Jilin, China.
Hulunbuir Maritime Safety Bureau, Hulunbuir, 021000, Inner Mongolia, China.
Heliyon. 2023 Sep 8;9(9):e19839. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19839. eCollection 2023 Sep.
The aim of this study is to provide an empirical answer to the question of whether nexus exists between climate change and sustainable agricultural growth in nine (9) countries within the Sahel region between 1990 and 2020. The study utilized Panel ARDL and Pairwise Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality Tests to arrive at the following conclusions; firstly, the climate change orchestrated by change in rainfall is a very prominent factor causing reduction in sustainable agricultural growth in the Sahel region. One way feedback relationship flows from sustainable agricultural growth to greenhouse gas emission. In the light of the above, this study recommends that, in addressing the adverse effects of change in rainfall on agricultural sustainability, the policymakers in the Sahel region in particular and Africa as a whole should embark on a policy mix by embanking on mitigating policy response towards ensuring sustainable agricultural production via irrigation which is the best mode of water provisions without causing negative spilliovers on the environment. Also, the policymakers should be proactive by embarking on policies and programs that would build the resilience and adaptation of the region ahead of the future adverse effects of agriculturally induced climatic change.
本研究的目的是为1990年至2020年期间萨赫勒地区九个国家气候变化与可持续农业增长之间是否存在联系这一问题提供实证答案。该研究利用面板自回归分布滞后模型(Panel ARDL)和成对杜米特雷斯库-赫尔林面板因果检验得出以下结论:首先,降雨变化引发的气候变化是导致萨赫勒地区可持续农业增长下降的一个非常突出的因素。单向反馈关系从可持续农业增长流向温室气体排放。鉴于上述情况,本研究建议,为应对降雨变化对农业可持续性的不利影响,特别是萨赫勒地区以及整个非洲的政策制定者应采取政策组合,通过采取缓解政策措施,确保通过灌溉实现可持续农业生产,灌溉是提供水资源的最佳方式,且不会对环境造成负面溢出效应。此外,政策制定者应积极主动,实施相关政策和计划,在农业引发的气候变化产生未来不利影响之前,增强该地区的恢复力和适应能力。