College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, China.
Center for Global Change Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2023 Dec 5;57(48):19487-19496. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.3c02734. Epub 2023 Nov 10.
Fully fluorinated greenhouse gases (FFGHGs), including sulfur hexafluoride (SF), nitrogen trifluoride (NF), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs), have drawn attention because they have long atmospheric lifetimes (up to thousands of years) and high global warming potential. Targeting SF, NF, and four PFCs (CF, CF, CF, and -CF), this study projects future FFGHG emission patterns in China, explores their mitigation potential, and evaluates the effects of FFGHG emission reduction on the achievement of the country's carbon neutrality goal and climate change. FFGHG emissions are expected to increase consistently, ranging from 506 to 1356 Mt CO-eq yr in 2060 under the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. If mitigation strategies are sufficiently employed, FFGHG emissions under three mitigation scenarios: Technologically Feasible 2030, Technologically Feasible 2050, and Technologically Feasible 2060, will eventually decrease to approximately 49-78, 70-110, and 98-164 Mt CO-eq yr in 2060, respectively, compared to the BAU scenario. Extensive implementation of FFGHG emission mitigation technologies will curb temperature rise by 0.008-0.013 °C under the slowest mitigation scenario, compared to 0.013-0.026 °C under the BAU scenario. Well-coordinated policies and reforms on FFGHG emission mitigation are recommended to prevent potential adverse effects on the climate to a certain extent.
全氟化温室气体（FFGHG），包括六氟化硫（SF）、三氟化氮（NF）和 全氟碳化合物（PFC），由于其具有很长的大气寿命（长达数千 年）和很高的全球变暖潜能值而引起了关注。本研究针对 SF、NF 和四种 PFC（CF、CF、CF 和 -CF），预测了中国未来的 FFGHG 排放模式，探讨了其减排潜力，并评估了减少 FFGHG 排放对实现国家碳中性目标和气候变化的影响。在基准情景下，到 2060 年，FFGHG 排放量预计将持续增加，范围在 506 至 1356 Mt CO2-eq yr 之间。如果充分采用减排策略，在三种减排情景下：技术可行 2030 年、技术可行 2050 年和技术可行 2060 年，到 2060 年，FFGHG 排放量最终将分别减少到大约 49-78、70-110 和 98-164 Mt CO2-eq yr，相比基准情景。与基准情景相比，在减排速度最慢的情景下，广泛实施 FFGHG 排放减排技术将使气温升高幅度降低 0.008-0.013 °C，而在基准情景下，气温升高幅度将达到 0.013-0.026 °C。建议采取协调一致的政策和改革措施，以减轻 FFGHG 排放减排对气候的潜在不利影响。
