Liu Yu, Sheng Jianxiong, Rigby Matthew, Ganesan Anita, Kim Jooil, Western Luke M, Mühle Jens, Park Sunyoung, Park Hyeri, Weiss Ray F, Salameh Peter K, O'Doherty Simon, Young Dickon, Krummel Paul B, Vollmer Martin K, Reimann Stefan, Lunder Chris R, Prinn Ronald G
Center for Global Change Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, United States.
School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SA, United Kingdom.
Environ Sci Technol. 2024 Jul 15;58(30):13318-26. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.4c04507.
Nitrogen trifluoride (NF) is a potent and long-lived greenhouse gas that is widely used in the manufacture of semiconductors, photovoltaic cells, and flat panel displays. Using atmospheric observations from eight monitoring stations from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and inverse modeling with a global 3-D atmospheric chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), we quantify global and regional NF emission from 2015 to 2021. We find that global emissions have grown from 1.93 ± 0.58 Gg yr (± one standard deviation) in 2015 to 3.38 ± 0.61 Gg yr in 2021, with an average annual increase of 10% yr. The available observations allow us to attribute significant emissions to China (0.93 ± 0.15 Gg yr in 2015 and 1.53 ± 0.20 Gg yr in 2021) and South Korea (0.38 ± 0.07 Gg yr to 0.65 ± 0.10 Gg yr). East Asia contributes around 73% of the global NF emission increase from 2015 to 2021: approximately 41% of the increase is from emissions from China (with Taiwan included), 19% from South Korea, and 13% from Japan. For Japan, which is the only one of these three countries to submit annual NF emissions to UNFCCC, our bottom-up and top-down estimates are higher than reported. With increasing demand for electronics, especially flat panel displays, emissions are expected to further increase in the future.
三氟化氮（NF₃）是一种强效且寿命长的温室气体，广泛应用于半导体、光伏电池和平板显示器的制造。利用来自先进全球大气气体实验（AGAGE）的8个监测站的大气观测数据，并结合全球三维大气化学传输模型（GEOS-Chem）进行反演建模，我们对2015年至2021年全球和区域的NF₃排放进行了量化。我们发现全球排放量已从2015年的1.93±0.58Gg/年（±一个标准差）增长到2021年的3.38±0.61Gg/年，年均增长10%/年。现有观测数据使我们能够将大量排放归因于中国（2015年为0.93±0.15Gg/年，2021年为1.53±0.20Gg/年）和韩国（从0.38±0.07Gg/年增至0.65±0.10Gg/年）。2015年至2021年，东亚地区对全球NF₃排放增长的贡献约为73%：其中约41%的增长来自中国（包括台湾地区）的排放，19%来自韩国，13%来自日本。对于这三个国家中唯一向《联合国气候变化框架公约》提交年度NF₃排放量的日本，我们自下而上和自上而下的估计均高于其报告值。随着对电子产品尤其是平板显示器需求的增加，预计未来排放量将进一步上升。
