伊朗东南部绵羊、山羊、牛和骆驼布鲁氏菌病的贝叶斯真实流行率估计。
Bayesian true prevalence estimation of brucellosis in sheep, goats, cattle and camels in southeast regions of Iran.
机构信息
Department of Public and One Health, University of Thessaly, Karditsa, Greece.
Department of Clinical Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
出版信息
Zoonoses Public Health. 2024 Mar;71(2):170-177. doi: 10.1111/zph.13095. Epub 2023 Nov 17.
AIMS AND METHODS
Brucellosis is worldwide one of the most prevalent zoonotic diseases with serious public health hazard affecting domestic livestock and causing economic losses. Objective of this study is to estimate the true prevalence of brucellosis in livestock, specifically cattle, sheep, goats and camels, using a novel Bayesian latent class model, adjusting for the imperfect sensitivity and specificity of the applied tests, where the second test was restricted only to first test-positive samples.
RESULTS
Brucellosis seems more prevalent in goats and sheep, while the posterior medians and 95% probability intervals (95% PI) for the average true prevalence for sheep, goats, cattle and camels are 18% (4%-43%), 19% (7%-37%), 16% (5%-34%) and 18% (1%-48%) respectively.
CONCLUSIONS
The study results indicate that brucellosis is highly endemic in Iran and crucial steps are needed to control and raise awareness about the high public health concern of the disease.
目的和方法
布鲁氏菌病是全球最普遍的动物传染病之一，对家畜有严重的公共卫生危害，并造成经济损失。本研究的目的是使用一种新的贝叶斯潜在类别模型来估计家畜（特别是牛、羊、山羊和骆驼）中布鲁氏菌病的真实流行率，该模型调整了应用检测方法的不完美敏感性和特异性，其中第二个检测仅限制于第一个检测呈阳性的样本。
结果
布鲁氏菌病似乎在山羊和绵羊中更为普遍，而绵羊、山羊、牛和骆驼的平均真实流行率的后中位数和 95%概率区间（95%PI）分别为 18%（4%-43%）、19%（7%-37%）、16%（5%-34%）和 18%（1%-48%）。
结论
研究结果表明，布鲁氏菌病在伊朗高度流行，需要采取关键措施来控制和提高对该疾病高度公共卫生关注的认识。
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