Koichubekov Berik, Takuadina Aliya, Korshukov Ilya, Sorokina Marina, Turmukhambetova Anar
Department of Informatics and Biostatistics, Karaganda Medical University, Gogol St. 40, Karaganda 100008, Kazakhstan.
Institute of Life Sciences, Karaganda Medical University, Gogol St. 40, Karaganda 100008, Kazakhstan.
Healthcare (Basel). 2023 Nov 16;11(22):2968. doi: 10.3390/healthcare11222968.
Our study aimed to assess how effective the preventative measures taken by the state authorities during the pandemic were in terms of public health protection and the rational use of material and human resources.
We utilized a stochastic agent-based model for COVID-19's spread combined with the WHO-recommended COVID-ESFT version 2.0 tool for material and labor cost estimation.
Our long-term forecasts (up to 50 days) showed satisfactory results with a steady trend in the total cases. However, the short-term forecasts (up to 10 days) were more accurate during periods of relative stability interrupted by sudden outbreaks. The simulations indicated that the infection's spread was highest within families, with most COVID-19 cases occurring in the 26-59 age group. Government interventions resulted in 3.2 times fewer cases in Karaganda than predicted under a "no intervention" scenario, yielding an estimated economic benefit of 40%.
The combined tool we propose can accurately forecast the progression of the infection, enabling health organizations to allocate specialists and material resources in a timely manner.
我们的研究旨在评估国家当局在疫情期间采取的预防措施在公共卫生保护以及物质和人力资源合理利用方面的效果如何。
我们采用了基于主体的随机模型来模拟新冠病毒的传播，并结合世界卫生组织推荐的COVID-ESFT 2.0工具来估算材料和劳动力成本。
我们的长期预测（长达50天）显示结果令人满意，总病例数呈稳定趋势。然而，在相对稳定但被突然爆发打断的时期，短期预测（长达10天）更为准确。模拟结果表明，家庭内部感染传播率最高，大多数新冠病例发生在26至59岁年龄组。政府干预使卡拉干达的病例数比“无干预”情景下预测的少3.2倍，产生了40%的经济效益。
我们提出的组合工具能够准确预测感染的发展进程，使卫生组织能够及时分配专业人员和物质资源。
