Zenezini Giovanni, Mangano Giulio, De Marco Alberto
Department of Management and Production Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino (TO), Italy.
Res Transp Bus Manag. 2022 Dec;45:100865. doi: 10.1016/j.rtbm.2022.100865. Epub 2022 Jul 29.
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the relevance of goods delivery in urban areas. However, this activity often generates negative environmental impact and several technologies have been proposed in recent years to reduce it, thus forming a complex innovation landscape characterized by different levels of maturity and effects on the City Logistics (CL) system. This complexity causes a deep uncertainty over the future of CL. This paper aims to tackle this uncertainty by forecasting the future of a set of CL technologies. A Delphi survey has been submitted to experts of this field to achieve a stable consensus over 33 projections related to 7 CL technologies for the year 2030. Results show that real-time data collection will help the coordination process between stakeholders, engendering an increased awareness over the value of using logistics data as well as its potential drawbacks. Moreover, experts share a positive attitude towards the expansion of Parcel Lockers, which should be monitored by public authorities to avoid a negative impact on land use. Finally, technologies such as drones and crowd-logistics have drawn the lowest level of consensus due to their lower level of maturity, which arouse the necessity to further explore several issues such as legal and technical barriers.
新冠疫情凸显了城市地区货物配送的重要性。然而，这一活动往往会产生负面环境影响，近年来人们提出了多种技术来减少这种影响，从而形成了一个复杂的创新格局，其特点是成熟度不同，对城市物流（CL）系统的影响也不同。这种复杂性导致了城市物流未来的深度不确定性。本文旨在通过预测一系列城市物流技术的未来来应对这种不确定性。已向该领域的专家进行了德尔菲调查，以便就与2030年7种城市物流技术相关的33项预测达成稳定共识。结果表明，实时数据收集将有助于利益相关者之间的协调过程，提高人们对使用物流数据的价值及其潜在缺点的认识。此外，专家们对包裹储物柜的扩张持积极态度，公共当局应对此进行监测，以避免对土地使用产生负面影响。最后，无人机和众包物流等技术由于成熟度较低，达成的共识程度最低，这就有必要进一步探讨法律和技术障碍等若干问题。
