Department of Gastroenterology, East Carolina University/Brody School of Medicine, Greenville, North Carolina, USA.
Department of Gastroenterology, Mather Hospital/Hofstra University Zucker School of Medicine, New York City, New York, USA.
Cancer Med. 2024 Jan;13(1):e6880. doi: 10.1002/cam4.6880. Epub 2023 Dec 27.
The current study, focusing on a significant US (United States) colorectal cancer (CRC) burden, employs machine learning for predicting future rates among young population.
CDC WONDER data from 1999 to 2022 was analyzed for CRC-related mortality in patients younger than 56 years. Temporal trends in age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were assessed via Joinpoint software. Future mortality rates were forecasted using an optimal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.
From 1999 to 2022, we observed 150,908 deaths with CRC listed as the underlying cause, predominantly in males, with an upward trend in AAMR. The ARIMA model projects an increase in CRC mortality by 2035, estimating an average annual percent change (AAPC) of 1.3% overall, 1% for females, and 1.5% for males.
Our study findings emphasize the need for more robust preventive measures to reduce future CRC mortality among younger population. These results have significant implications for public health policies, particularly for males under 56, and underscore the importance of early screening and lifestyle modifications.
本研究聚焦于美国（美国）结直肠癌（CRC）的巨大负担，利用机器学习预测年轻人群未来的发病率。
分析了 1999 年至 2022 年疾病预防控制中心 Wonder 数据中年龄小于 56 岁的 CRC 相关死亡率。使用 Joinpoint 软件评估年龄调整死亡率（AAMR）的时间趋势。使用最优自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测未来死亡率。
从 1999 年到 2022 年，我们观察到 150908 例 CRC 作为根本原因导致的死亡，主要发生在男性，AAMR 呈上升趋势。ARIMA 模型预测到 2035 年 CRC 死亡率将上升，估计总体平均年百分比变化（AAPC）为 1.3%，女性为 1%，男性为 1.5%。
我们的研究结果强调需要采取更有力的预防措施，以减少年轻人群未来的 CRC 死亡率。这些结果对公共卫生政策具有重要意义，特别是对 56 岁以下的男性，并强调了早期筛查和生活方式改变的重要性。
