Haw David J, Forchini Giovanni, Doohan Patrick, Christen Paula, Pianella Matteo, Johnson Robert, Bajaj Sumali, Hogan Alexandra B, Winskill Peter, Miraldo Marisa, White Peter J, Ghani Azra C, Ferguson Neil M, Smith Peter C, Hauck Katharina D
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis & WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling, Jameel Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK.
USBE, Umeå Universitet, Umeå, Sweden.
Nat Comput Sci. 2022 Apr;2(4):223-233. doi: 10.1038/s43588-022-00233-0. Epub 2022 Apr 28.
To study the trade-off between economic, social and health outcomes in the management of a pandemic, DAEDALUS integrates a dynamic epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a multi-sector economic model, reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in transmission and complex supply chains. The model identifies mitigation strategies that optimize economic production while constraining infections so that hospital capacity is not exceeded but allowing essential services, including much of the education sector, to remain active. The model differentiates closures by economic sector, keeping those sectors open that contribute little to transmission but much to economic output and those that produce essential services as intermediate or final consumption products. In an illustrative application to 63 sectors in the United Kingdom, the model achieves an economic gain of between £161 billion (24%) and £193 billion (29%) compared to a blanket lockdown of non-essential activities over six months. Although it has been designed for SARS-CoV-2, DAEDALUS is sufficiently flexible to be applicable to pandemics with different epidemiological characteristics.
为了研究大流行管理中经济、社会和健康结果之间的权衡，代达罗斯将SARS-CoV-2传播的动态流行病学模型与多部门经济模型相结合，反映了传播中的部门异质性和复杂的供应链。该模型确定了缓解策略，这些策略在限制感染的同时优化经济生产，以使医院容量不被超过，同时允许包括大部分教育部门在内的基本服务保持运转。该模型按经济部门区分关闭措施，让那些对传播贡献小但对经济产出贡献大的部门以及那些生产基本服务作为中间或最终消费产品的部门保持开放。在对英国63个部门的一个示例应用中，与对非必要活动进行为期六个月的全面封锁相比，该模型实现了1610亿英镑（24%）至1930亿英镑（29%）的经济收益。尽管代达罗斯是为SARS-CoV-2设计的，但它具有足够的灵活性，可应用于具有不同流行病学特征的大流行。
