Bun Rostyslav, Marland Gregg, Oda Tomohiro, See Linda, Puliafito Enrique, Nahorski Zbigniew, Jonas Mathias, Kovalyshyn Vasyl, Ialongo Iolanda, Yashchun Orysia, Romanchuk Zoriana
Lviv Polytechnic National University, Bandery str., 12, Lviv 79013, Ukraine; WSB University, Cieplaka str., 1c, Dąbrowa Górnicza 41300, Poland.
Appalachian State University, Boone, NC, USA.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Mar 1;914:169879. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169879. Epub 2024 Jan 5.
Accounting and reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are mandatory for Parties under the Paris Agreement. Emissions reporting is important for understanding the global carbon cycle and for addressing global climate change. However, in a period of open conflict or war, military emissions increase significantly and the accounting system is not currently designed to account adequately for this source. In this paper we analyze how, during the first 18 months of the 2022/2023 full-scale war in Ukraine, GHG national inventory reporting to the UNFCCC was affected. We estimated the decrease of emissions due to a reduction in traditional human activities. We identified major, war-related, emission processes from the territory of Ukraine not covered by current GHG inventory guidelines and that are not likely to be included in national inventory reports. If these emissions are included, they will likely be incorporated in a way that is not transparent with potentially high uncertainty. We analyze publicly available data and use expert judgment to estimate such emissions from (1) the use of bombs, missiles, barrel artillery, and mines; (2) the consumption of oil products for military operations; (3) fires at petroleum storage depots and refineries; (4) fires in buildings and infrastructure facilities; (5) fires on forest and agricultural lands; and (6) the decomposition of war-related garbage/waste. Our estimate of these war-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide for the first 18 months of the war in Ukraine is 77 MtCO-eq. with a relative uncertainty of +/-22 % (95 % confidence interval).
根据《巴黎协定》，各缔约方必须对温室气体排放进行核算和报告。排放报告对于理解全球碳循环和应对全球气候变化至关重要。然而，在公开冲突或战争期间，军事排放会大幅增加，而目前的核算系统并未设计用于充分核算这一排放源。在本文中，我们分析了在2022/2023年乌克兰全面战争的头18个月里，向《联合国气候变化框架公约》报告的温室气体国家清单受到了怎样的影响。我们估算了因传统人类活动减少而导致的排放量下降。我们确定了乌克兰境内目前温室气体清单指南未涵盖且不太可能纳入国家清单报告的与战争相关的主要排放过程。如果将这些排放计算在内，它们很可能会以一种不透明且不确定性可能很高的方式被纳入。我们分析公开可用的数据，并运用专家判断来估算来自以下方面的此类排放：(1)炸弹、导弹、身管火炮和地雷的使用；(2)军事行动中的石油产品消耗；(3)石油储存库和炼油厂的火灾；(4)建筑物和基础设施设施的火灾；(5)森林和农田的火灾；以及(6)与战争相关的垃圾/废弃物的分解。我们对乌克兰战争头18个月这些与战争相关的二氧化碳、甲烷和氧化亚氮排放的估算为7700万吨二氧化碳当量，相对不确定性为±22%（95%置信区间）。
