Virgillito Chiara, Longo Eleonora, De Marco Carlo Maria, Gentile Chiara, Micocci Martina, Topalidis Christos, Violante Luana, Filipponi Federico, Poletti Piero, Merler Stefano, Della Torre Alessandra, Caputo Beniamino, Manica Mattia
Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.
Center Agriculture Food Environment, University of Trento, San Michele all'Adige (TN), Trento, Italy.
Commun Med (Lond). 2025 Jul 23;5(1):307. doi: 10.1038/s43856-025-00983-8.
In 2023, an unprecedentedly high number of locally acquired cases of dengue virus occurred in Europe, including the first large outbreak in Rome (Italy). Globally, 2023 was warmer than any previous year on record since 1850, with each month from June to December being warmer than the corresponding month in previous years.
We conducted an extensive analysis of entomological data in Rome to investigate how the unprecedentedly high temperatures seen in 2023 affected the abundance and seasonal dynamics of the local vector Aedes albopictus population and the risk of autochthonous transmission of both dengue and chikungunya viruses. We applied a mathematical dynamic temperature-based model to analyse adult mosquito collections in 2023 compared to those available for 2012 and assess the consequent changes in the risk of arboviral transmission. Simulations of potential local transmission triggered by disease importation were used to evaluate the effectiveness of human and entomological surveillance for monitoring transmission risks, providing insights for future action plans RESULTS: Results highlight a higher abundance and longer active season of Ae. albopictus as well as a higher risk of local arbovirus transmission in 2023.
Our findings raise concern in light of the predictions for more frequent extremely warm years in Europe in the near future.
2023年，欧洲出现了数量空前之多的登革热病毒本地感染病例，包括在罗马（意大利）首次出现的大规模疫情。从全球范围来看，2023年比自1850年有记录以来的任何一年都要温暖，6月至12月的每个月都比前几年的相应月份更温暖。
我们对罗马的昆虫学数据进行了广泛分析，以研究2023年出现的前所未有的高温如何影响当地媒介白纹伊蚊种群的数量和季节动态，以及登革热和基孔肯雅病毒的本地传播风险。我们应用了一个基于温度的数学动态模型，将2023年的成年蚊子捕获量与2012年可得的数据进行比较，并评估虫媒病毒传播风险的相应变化。通过模拟疾病输入引发的潜在本地传播，来评估人类和昆虫学监测对监测传播风险的有效性，为未来行动计划提供见解。结果：结果凸显出2023年白纹伊蚊数量更多、活跃季节更长，以及当地虫媒病毒传播风险更高。
鉴于近期欧洲预计将更频繁出现极暖年份，我们的研究结果引发了关注。
