University of New South Wales Business School, UNSW Sydney, Kensington NSW 2052, Australia.
Sci Adv. 2024 Jan 12;10(2):eadi5034. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adi5034.
Continuing to gamble despite harmful consequences has plagued human life in many ways, from loss-chasing in problem gamblers to reckless investing during stock market bubbles. Here, we propose that these anomalies in human behavior can sometimes reflect Pavlovian perturbations on instrumental behavior. To show this, we combined key elements of Pavlovian psychology literature and standard economic theory into a single model. In it, when a gambling cue such as a gaming machine or a financial asset repeatedly delivers a good outcome, the agent may start engaging with the cue even when the expected value is negative. Next, we transported the theoretical framework into an experimental task and found that participants behaved like the agent in our model. Last, we applied the model to the domain of real-world financial trading and discovered an asset-pricing anomaly suggesting that market participants are susceptible to the purported Pavlovian bias.
尽管有害后果继续存在，但人类生活在许多方面都深受其害，从赌徒的追涨杀跌到股市泡沫时期的鲁莽投资。在这里，我们提出，人类行为中的这些异常有时可能反映了工具行为上的巴甫洛夫式干扰。为了证明这一点，我们将巴甫洛夫心理学文献和标准经济理论的关键要素结合到一个单一的模型中。在这个模型中，当一个赌博线索，如游戏机或金融资产，反复给出好的结果时，即使预期值为负，代理人也可能开始与线索互动。接下来，我们将理论框架转移到一个实验任务中，并发现参与者的行为与我们模型中的代理人相似。最后，我们将模型应用于现实世界的金融交易领域，发现了一种资产定价异常现象，表明市场参与者容易受到所谓的巴甫洛夫偏见的影响。
