HRD Center and Department of Economics of SKKU, Sungkyunkwan University, 25-2, Sungkyunkwan-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 03063, Korea.
Department of Economics in SKKU, Sungkyunkwan University, 25-2, Sungkyunkwan-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 03063, Korea.
Global Health. 2024 Jan 16;20(1):8. doi: 10.1186/s12992-023-01013-9.
Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, striking a delicate balance between sustaining economic activity and safeguarding public health has become a crucial concern. The border closures for COVID-19 prevention have further intensified concerns for North Korea, which conducts over 90% of its trade with China and Russia, countries sharing its borders.
This study aims to scrutinize North Korea's response to these competing imperatives by examining the impact of border closures on the country's trade dynamics with China and Russia. This study employed the difference-in-difference (DID) method to analyze transformations in North Korea's economic activity before and after the border closures, utilizing trade data and nighttime satellite imagery captured in 2019 and 2020.
The results reveal that North Korea actively reoriented its trade priorities towards Russia and accorded precedence to its epidemic prevention system over its economy during the pandemic. A noticeable increase in imports of food and pharmaceuticals was observed, indicating a significant rise in the inflow of these essential commodities.
The findings of this study suggest that during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korea placed significant policy emphasis on preserving public health. However, due to economic hardships and food shortages, if the pandemic persists in the long term, it indicates the possibility of partial or complete lifting of border closures to mitigate these challenges.
在 COVID-19 大流行期间，在维持经济活动和保护公众健康之间取得微妙平衡已成为一个关键问题。为预防 COVID-19 而关闭边境进一步加剧了朝鲜的担忧，因为朝鲜 90%以上的贸易是与中国和俄罗斯这两个与其接壤的国家进行的。
本研究旨在通过考察边境关闭对朝鲜与中国和俄罗斯贸易动态的影响，仔细研究朝鲜对这些相互竞争的要求的应对。本研究采用双重差分（DID）方法，利用 2019 年和 2020 年的贸易数据和夜间卫星图像，分析了边境关闭前后朝鲜经济活动的变化。
结果表明，朝鲜在疫情期间积极调整贸易重点，优先向俄罗斯转口，并将其防疫体系置于经济之上。观察到食品和药品进口显著增加，表明这些必需品的流入量大幅增加。
本研究结果表明，在 COVID-19 大流行的早期阶段，朝鲜在政策上非常重视保护公众健康。然而，由于经济困难和粮食短缺，如果疫情长期持续，可能会部分或完全解除边境封锁以缓解这些挑战。
