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人工智能预测2023年印度夏季季风降雨正常。

Artificial intelligence predicts normal summer monsoon rainfall for India in 2023.

作者信息

Narang Udit, Juneja Kushal, Upadhyaya Pankaj, Salunke Popat, Chakraborty Tanmoy, Behera Swadhin Kumar, Mishra Saroj Kanta, Suresh Akhil Dev

机构信息

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology Delhi, Delhi, India.

Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi, India.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Jan 17;14(1):1495. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-44284-3.

Abstract

Inaccuracy in the All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) forecast has major repercussions for India's economy and people's daily lives. Improving the accuracy of AISMR forecasts remains a challenge. An attempt is made here to address this problem by taking advantage of recent advances in machine learning techniques. The data-driven models trained with historical AISMR data, the Niño3.4 index, and categorical Indian Ocean Dipole values outperform the traditional physical models, and the best-performing model predicts that the 2023 AISMR will be roughly 790 mm, which is typical of a normal monsoon year.

摘要

全印度夏季季风降雨(AISMR)预测的不准确对印度经济和人民日常生活有着重大影响。提高AISMR预测的准确性仍然是一项挑战。本文尝试利用机器学习技术的最新进展来解决这一问题。用历史AISMR数据、尼诺3.4指数和分类印度洋偶极子值训练的数据驱动模型优于传统物理模型,表现最佳的模型预测2023年AISMR约为790毫米,这是正常季风年份的典型数值。

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