Linn Samantha, Lawley Sean D, Karamched Bhargav R, Kilpatrick Zachary P, Josić Krešimir
Department of Mathematics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA.
Department of Mathematics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida 32306, USA.
ArXiv. 2024 Jan 2:arXiv:2401.00306v2.
Decisions are often made by heterogeneous groups of individuals, each with distinct initial biases and access to information of different quality. We show that in large groups of independent agents who accumulate evidence the first to decide are those with the strongest initial biases. Their decisions align with their initial bias, regardless of the underlying truth. In contrast, agents who decide last make decisions as if they were initially unbiased, and hence make better choices. We obtain asymptotic expressions in the large population limit that quantify how agents' initial inclinations shape early decisions. Our analysis shows how bias, information quality, and decision order interact in non-trivial ways to determine the reliability of decisions in a group.
决策通常由不同的个体群体做出,每个个体都有不同的初始偏见,并且能够获取质量各异的信息。我们表明,在大量积累证据的独立主体群体中,最先做出决策的是那些初始偏见最强的人。他们的决策与初始偏见一致,而不管基本事实如何。相比之下,最后做出决策的主体做出的决策就好像他们最初没有偏见一样,因此能做出更好的选择。我们在大群体极限情况下得到了渐近表达式,这些表达式量化了主体的初始倾向如何影响早期决策。我们的分析表明了偏见、信息质量和决策顺序如何以复杂的方式相互作用,从而决定群体决策的可靠性。