Reina Andreagiovanni, Bose Thomas, Srivastava Vaibhav, Marshall James A R
Institute for Interdisciplinary Studies on Artificial Intelligence (IRIDIA), Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels 1050, Belgium.
Department of Computer Science, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S1 4DP, UK.
R Soc Open Sci. 2023 Mar 15;10(3):230175. doi: 10.1098/rsos.230175. eCollection 2023 Mar.
It is usually assumed that information cascades are most likely to occur when an early but incorrect opinion spreads through the group. Here, we analyse models of confidence-sharing in groups and reveal the opposite result: simple but plausible models of naive-Bayesian decision-making exhibit information cascades when group decisions are synchronous; however, when group decisions are asynchronous, the early decisions reached by Bayesian decision-makers tend to be correct and dominate the group consensus dynamics. Thus early decisions actually rescue the group from making errors, rather than contribute to it. We explore the likely realism of our assumed decision-making rule with reference to the evolution of mechanisms for aggregating social information, and known psychological and neuroscientific mechanisms.
通常认为，当一个早期但错误的观点在群体中传播时，信息级联最有可能发生。在这里，我们分析了群体中信心共享的模型，并揭示了相反的结果：简单但合理的朴素贝叶斯决策模型在群体决策同步时会出现信息级联；然而，当群体决策异步时，贝叶斯决策者早期做出的决策往往是正确的，并主导群体共识动态。因此，早期决策实际上使群体避免犯错，而不是导致错误。我们参照社会信息聚合机制的演变以及已知的心理和神经科学机制，探讨了我们所假设的决策规则的现实可能性。
