Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China.
State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Feb 27;353:120193. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120193. Epub 2024 Feb 1.
Wetlands, known as the "kidney of the earth", are an important component of global ecosystems. However, they have been changed under multiple stresses in recent decades, which is especially true in the Yellow River Delta. This study examined the spatiotemporal change characteristics of wetlands in the Yellow River Delta from 1980 to 2020 and predicted detailed wetland changes from 2020 to 2030 with the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model under four scenarios, namely, the natural development scenario (NDS), the farmland protection scenario (FPS), the wetland protection scenario (WPS) and the harmonious development scenario (HDS). The results showed that wetlands increased 709.29 km from 1980 to 2020 overall, and the wetland types in the Yellow River Delta changed divergently. Over the past four decades, the tidal flats have decreased, whereas the reservoirs and ponds have increased. The gravity center movement of wetlands differed among the wetland types, with artificial wetlands moving to the northwest and natural wetlands moving to the south. The movement distance of the gravity center demonstrated apparent phase characteristics, and an abrupt change occurred from 2005 to 2010. The PLUS model was satisfactory, with an overall accuracy (OA) value greater than 83.48 % and an figure of merit (FOM) value greater than 0.1164. From 2020 to 2030, paddy fields and tidal flats decreased, whereas natural water, marshes and reservoirs and ponds increased under the four scenarios. The WPS was a relatively ideal scenario for wetlands, and the HDS was an alternative scenario for wetland restoration and food production. In the future, more attention should be paid to restoring natural wetlands to prevent further degradation in the Yellow River Delta. This study provides insights into new understandings of historical and future changes in wetlands and may have implications for wetland ecosystem protection and sustainable development.
湿地被称为“地球之肾”，是全球生态系统的重要组成部分。然而，在最近几十年，湿地受到了多种压力的影响，黄河三角洲尤其如此。本研究考察了 1980 年至 2020 年黄河三角洲湿地的时空变化特征，并利用斑块生成土地利用模拟（PLUS）模型在自然发展情景（NDS）、耕地保护情景（FPS）、湿地保护情景（WPS）和协调发展情景（HDS）下预测了 2020 年至 2030 年的详细湿地变化。结果表明，湿地总面积从 1980 年到 2020 年增加了 709.29 公里，黄河三角洲的湿地类型变化也各不相同。在过去的四十年中，潮滩减少了，而水库和池塘增加了。湿地的重心移动在不同的湿地类型中也有所不同，人工湿地向西北移动，自然湿地向南方移动。湿地重心移动的距离具有明显的阶段特征，2005 年至 2010 年发生了明显的变化。PLUS 模型表现良好，总体精度（OA）值大于 83.48%，赋权分数（FOM）值大于 0.1164。从 020 年到 2030 年，在四个情景下，稻田和潮滩减少，而自然水域、沼泽和水库和池塘增加。WPS 是湿地的一个相对理想情景，HDS 是湿地恢复和粮食生产的替代情景。未来应更加重视恢复自然湿地，防止黄河三角洲湿地进一步退化。本研究为湿地历史和未来变化的新认识提供了依据，对湿地生态系统保护和可持续发展具有重要意义。
