Bonnet Florian, Grigoriev Pavel, Sauerberg Markus, Alliger Ina, Mühlichen Michael, Camarda Carlo-Giovanni
French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), 9 cours des Humanités, 93300, Aubervilliers, France.
Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), Wiesbaden, Germany.
J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2024 Jun;14(2):470-479. doi: 10.1007/s44197-024-00200-0. Epub 2024 Feb 20.
To measure the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 at the subnational level by estimating excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to an expected baseline mortality level.
Statistical and demographic analyses of regional all-cause mortality data provided by the vital statistics systems of 21 European countries for 561 regions in Central and Western Europe. Life expectancy losses at ages 0 and 60 for males and females were estimated.
We found evidence of a loss in life expectancy in 391 regions, whilst only three regions exhibit notable gains in life expectancy in 2020. For 12 regions, losses of life expectancy amounted to more than 2 years and three regions showed losses greater than 3 years. We highlight geographical clusters of high mortality in Northern Italy, Spain and Poland, whilst clusters of low mortality were found in Western France, Germany/Denmark and Norway/Sweden.
Regional differences of loss of life expectancy are impressive, ranging from a loss of more than 4 years to a gain of 8 months. These findings provide a strong rationale for regional analysis, as national estimates hide significant regional disparities.
通过估计超额死亡率来衡量2020年新冠疫情在国家以下层面的负担，超额死亡率定义为全因死亡率相对于预期基线死亡率水平的增加。
对21个欧洲国家生命统计系统提供的中欧和西欧561个地区的区域全因死亡率数据进行统计和人口分析。估计了男性和女性在0岁和60岁时预期寿命的损失。
我们发现391个地区存在预期寿命损失的证据，而2020年只有三个地区的预期寿命有显著增加。对于12个地区，预期寿命损失超过2年，三个地区的损失超过3年。我们强调了意大利北部、西班牙和波兰的高死亡率地理集群，而在法国西部、德国/丹麦和挪威/瑞典发现了低死亡率集群。
预期寿命损失的区域差异令人印象深刻，从超过4年的损失到8个月的增加不等。这些发现为区域分析提供了有力的理由，因为国家层面的估计掩盖了显著的区域差异。
