Ritzel Christian, Möhring Anke, von Ow Albert
Agroscope, Research Group Economic Modelling and Policy Analysis, 8356, Ettenhausen, Switzerland.
FiBL, Research Group Evaluation and Impact Assessment, 5070, Frick, Switzerland.
Heliyon. 2024 Feb 24;10(5):e27058. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27058. eCollection 2024 Mar 15.
The world's food supply is becoming increasingly vulnerable because of rising political and climatic crises. To identify food supply vulnerabilities at an early stage, this paper proposes a multifactorial and standardized import vulnerability index (IVI). The IVI encompasses (i) an exporter vulnerability index (EVI) consisting of four exporter-specific factors and (ii) a product vulnerability index (PVI) consisting of three product-specific factors. We applied a robust principal component analysis to derive weights to combine these individual factors into a standardized IVI. The IVI was applied to food import-dependent Switzerland from 2014 to 2019 as an empirical case study. The results showed that a large share of Swiss food imports mainly originated from neighboring countries, indicating a very low to moderate EVI. Regarding the PVI, only product groups that were imported from a small number of countries (e.g., oilseeds) or that showed a low self-sufficiency ratio (e.g., coffee) or high price volatility (e.g., meat) exhibited a high value. Moreover, the findings demonstrate that the IVI showed neither large fluctuations nor a decreasing or increasing trend. With regular updates, the proposed indicator can become a valuable monitoring tool for food supply security.
由于政治和气候危机不断加剧，全球粮食供应正变得越来越脆弱。为了在早期阶段识别粮食供应的脆弱性，本文提出了一种多因素标准化进口脆弱性指数（IVI）。IVI包括：（i）由四个特定出口国因素组成的出口国脆弱性指数（EVI）；（ii）由三个特定产品因素组成的产品脆弱性指数（PVI）。我们应用了稳健主成分分析来确定权重，以便将这些个体因素组合成一个标准化的IVI。作为一个实证案例研究，我们将IVI应用于2014年至2019年依赖粮食进口的瑞士。结果表明，瑞士大部分食品进口主要来自邻国，这表明EVI非常低至中等。关于PVI，只有那些从少数国家进口的产品组（如油籽），或自给率低的产品组（如咖啡），或价格波动大的产品组（如肉类）呈现出较高的值。此外，研究结果表明，IVI既没有大幅波动，也没有下降或上升趋势。通过定期更新，所提出的指标可以成为粮食供应安全的一个有价值的监测工具。
