UK's fruit and vegetable supply increasingly dependent on imports from climate vulnerable producing countries.

Domestic contribution to total fruit and vegetable supply in the UK decreased from 42% in 1987 to 22% in 2013. The impact of this changing pattern of UK fruit and vegetable imports, from countries with different vulnerabilities to projected climate change, on the resilience of the UK food system is currently unknown. Here, we used the UN FAO bilateral trade database over a period of 27 years to estimate changes in fruit and vegetable supply in the UK, and the NDGAIN climate vulnerability categories to assess the climate vulnerability of countries supplying fruit and vegetables to the UK. The diversity of fruit and vegetable supply has increased from 21 crops, comprising the top 80% of all fruit and vegetables supplied to the UK in 1987, to 34 crops in 2013. The contribution of tropical fruits has rapidly increased while that of more traditional vegetables, such as cabbages and carrots, has declined. The proportion of fruit and vegetables supplied to the UK market from climate vulnerable countries increased from 20% in 1987 to 32% in 2013. Sensitivity analyses - using climatic and freshwater availability indicators - supported these findings. Increased reliance on fruit and vegetable imports from climate vulnerable countries could negatively affect the availability, price and consumption of fruit and vegetables in the UK, affecting dietary intake and health particularly of older people and low-income households. Inter-sectoral actions across agriculture, health, environment, and trade are critical in both the UK and countries that export to the UK to increase the resilience of the food system, and support population health.