Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products, School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, Western Cape, South Africa
Research Unit on the Economics of Excisable Products, School of Economics, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, Western Cape, South Africa.
BMJ Open. 2024 Mar 14;14(3):e077855. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-077855.
To estimate lost excise and value-added tax (VAT) revenue as a result of illicit cigarette trade from 2002 to 2022.
Using gap analysis, we estimated the number of illicit cigarettes by calculating the difference between the number of self-reported cigarettes (derived from nationally representative surveys) and the number of legal (tax-paid) cigarettes (derived from government sources) from 2002 to 2022. We then calculated the excise and VAT revenue that the government lost through illicit trade, taking into account that some people would have quit or reduced their consumption if cigarette prices had been higher (ie, tax paid).
South Africa.
Illicit trade estimates and lost revenue estimates.
The illicit cigarette market comprised 5% of the market in 2009, peaked at 60% in 2021, and decreased to 58% in 2022. Accounting for the fact that some people would have reduced their consumption if cigarette prices had been higher (had the illicit marke not existed), the government lost R15 billion in excise revenue and R3 billion in VAT revenue in 2022. From 2002 to 2022, the government lost R119 billion (2022 prices) in excise and VAT revenue. The majority of the lost revenue occurred in the period 2010 to 2022, where R110 billion (2022 prices) in excise and VAT revenue was lost. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis indicates that the estimated lost revenue of R119 billion from 2002 to 2022 falls within the range of R65 billion to R130 billion (all 2022 prices).
The South African government has been losing a significant amount of revenue by not receiving excise and VAT from all cigarettes consumed in South Africa. This trend is likely to continue if the government does not secure the supply chain from the point of production to the point of sale.
估算 2002 年至 2022 年非法卷烟贸易导致的消费税和增值税（VAT）损失。
我们采用差距分析法，通过计算 2002 年至 2022 年期间自报告卷烟数量（源自全国代表性调查）与合法（纳税）卷烟数量（源自政府来源）之间的差异，估算非法卷烟数量。然后，我们考虑到如果卷烟价格更高，一些人会戒烟或减少消费（即缴纳税款），计算政府通过非法贸易损失的消费税和增值税收入。
南非。
非法贸易估计数和损失收入估计数。
2009 年，非法卷烟市场占市场份额的 5%，2021 年达到 60%的峰值，2022 年降至 58%。考虑到如果不存在非法市场，一些人会减少消费的事实（即缴纳税款），政府在 2022 年损失了 150 亿兰特的消费税收入和 30 亿兰特的增值税收入。从 2002 年至 2022 年，政府损失了 1190 亿兰特（2022 年价格）的消费税和增值税收入。大部分损失的收入发生在 2010 年至 2022 年期间，其中 1100 亿兰特（2022 年价格）的消费税和增值税收入损失。一项全面的敏感性分析表明，2002 年至 2022 年期间估计损失的 1190 亿兰特收入在 650 亿至 1300 亿兰特之间（均为 2022 年价格）。
南非政府因未能从南非消费的所有卷烟中收取消费税和增值税而损失了大量收入。如果政府不从生产到销售点确保供应链安全，这种趋势可能会持续下去。
