Munshi Raafat M, Khayyat Mashael M, Ben Slama Sami, Khayyat Manal Mahmoud
Department of Medical Laboratory Technology (MLT) Faculty of Applied Medical Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, Rabigh, Saudi Arabia.
Department of Information Systems and Technology, College of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Jeddah, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Heliyon. 2024 Mar 23;10(7):e28031. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e28031. eCollection 2024 Apr 15.
This paper focuses on forecasting the total count of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Saudi Arabia through a range of methodologies, including ARIMA, mathematical modeling, and deep learning network (DQN) techniques. Its primary aim is to anticipate the verified COVID-19 cases in Saudi Arabia, aiding in decision-making for life-saving interventions by enhancing awareness of COVID-19 infection. Mathematical modeling and ARIMA are employed for their efficacy in forecasting, while DQN approaches, particularly through comparative analysis, are utilized for prediction. This comparative analysis evaluates the predictive capacities of ARIMA, mathematical modeling, and DQN techniques, aiming to pinpoint the most reliable method for forecasting positive COVID-19 cases. The modeling encompasses COVID-19 cases in Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom (UK), and Tunisia (TU) spanning from 2020 to 2021. Predicting the number of individuals likely to test positive for COVID-19 poses a challenge, requiring adherence to fundamental assumptions in mathematical and ARIMA projections. The proposed methodology was implemented on a local server. The DQN algorithm formulates a reward function to uphold target functional performance while balancing training and testing periods. The findings indicate that DQN technology surpasses conventional approaches in efficiency and accuracy for predictions.
本文聚焦于通过一系列方法预测沙特阿拉伯的新冠肺炎确诊病例总数,这些方法包括自回归积分移动平均模型(ARIMA)、数学建模和深度学习网络(DQN)技术。其主要目的是预测沙特阿拉伯已确诊的新冠肺炎病例,通过提高对新冠肺炎感染的认识,协助做出拯救生命干预措施的决策。数学建模和ARIMA因其在预测方面的有效性而被采用,而DQN方法,特别是通过比较分析,被用于预测。这种比较分析评估了ARIMA、数学建模和DQN技术的预测能力,旨在找出预测新冠肺炎阳性病例最可靠的方法。该建模涵盖了2020年至2021年沙特阿拉伯、英国和突尼斯的新冠肺炎病例。预测可能检测出新冠肺炎呈阳性的人数具有挑战性,需要在数学和ARIMA预测中遵循基本假设。所提出的方法在本地服务器上实施。DQN算法制定了一个奖励函数,以维持目标功能性能,同时平衡训练和测试阶段。研究结果表明,DQN技术在预测效率和准确性方面优于传统方法。