Interventional Vascular Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University, Haikou, P. R. China.
College of Biomedical Information and Engineering, Hainan Medical University, Haikou, R.P. China.
PLoS One. 2024 Apr 11;19(4):e0301014. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0301014. eCollection 2024.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is a common and severe complication in patients diagnosed with sepsis. It is associated with higher mortality rates, prolonged hospital stays, increased utilization of medical resources, and financial burden on patients' families. This study aimed to establish and validate predictive models using machine learning algorithms to accurately predict the occurrence of AKI in patients diagnosed with sepsis. METHODS: This retrospective study utilized real observational data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. It included patients aged 18 to 90 years diagnosed with sepsis who were admitted to the ICU for the first time and had hospital stays exceeding 48 hours. Predictive models, employing various machine learning algorithms including Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), EXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Logistic Regression (LR), were developed. The dataset was randomly divided into training and test sets at a ratio of 4:1. RESULTS: A total of 10,575 sepsis patients were included in the analysis, of whom 8,575 (81.1%) developed AKI during hospitalization. A selection of 47 variables was utilized for model construction. The models derived from LightGBM, XGBoost, RF, DT, ANN, SVM, and LR achieved AUCs of 0.801, 0.773, 0.772, 0.737, 0.720, 0.765, and 0.776, respectively. Among these models, LightGBM demonstrated the most superior predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: These machine learning models offer valuable predictive capabilities for identifying AKI in patients diagnosed with sepsis. The LightGBM model, with its superior predictive capability, could aid clinicians in early identification of high-risk patients.
背景与目的:急性肾损伤(AKI)是诊断为脓毒症的患者常见且严重的并发症。它与更高的死亡率、更长的住院时间、更多医疗资源的利用以及患者家庭的经济负担相关。本研究旨在使用机器学习算法建立和验证预测模型,以准确预测诊断为脓毒症的患者发生 AKI 的情况。
方法:本回顾性研究利用了 Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV(MIMIC-IV)数据库中的真实观察数据。它纳入了年龄在 18 至 90 岁之间、首次入住 ICU 且住院时间超过 48 小时的诊断为脓毒症的患者。采用各种机器学习算法,包括 Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM)、EXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost)、Random Forest(RF)、Decision Tree(DT)、Artificial Neural Network(ANN)、Support Vector Machine(SVM)和 Logistic Regression(LR),开发了预测模型。数据集以 4:1 的比例随机分为训练集和测试集。
结果:共纳入 10575 例脓毒症患者,其中 8575 例(81.1%)在住院期间发生 AKI。选择了 47 个变量用于模型构建。从 LightGBM、XGBoost、RF、DT、ANN、SVM 和 LR 中得到的模型的 AUC 值分别为 0.801、0.773、0.772、0.737、0.720、0.765 和 0.776。在这些模型中,LightGBM 表现出最优越的预测性能。
结论:这些机器学习模型为识别诊断为脓毒症的患者的 AKI 提供了有价值的预测能力。LightGBM 模型具有优越的预测能力,可以帮助临床医生早期识别高危患者。
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