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Non-Asymptotic Guarantees for Reliable Identification of Granger Causality via the LASSO.

作者信息

Das Proloy, Babadi Behtash

机构信息

Department of Anesthesia, Critical Care and Pain Medicine, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, 02114 USA.

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering and the Institute for Systems Research, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742 USA.

出版信息

IEEE Trans Inf Theory. 2023 Nov;69(11):7439-7460. doi: 10.1109/tit.2023.3296336. Epub 2023 Jul 17.


DOI:10.1109/tit.2023.3296336
PMID:38646067
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11025718/
Abstract

Granger causality is among the widely used data-driven approaches for causal analysis of time series data with applications in various areas including economics, molecular biology, and neuroscience. Two of the main challenges of this methodology are: 1) over-fitting as a result of limited data duration, and 2) correlated process noise as a confounding factor, both leading to errors in identifying the causal influences. Sparse estimation via the LASSO has successfully addressed these challenges for parameter estimation. However, the classical statistical tests for Granger causality resort to asymptotic analysis of ordinary least squares, which require long data duration to be useful and are not immune to confounding effects. In this work, we address this disconnect by introducing a LASSO-based statistic and studying its non-asymptotic properties under the assumption that the true models admit sparse autoregressive representations. We establish fundamental limits for reliable identification of Granger causal influences using the proposed LASSO-based statistic. We further characterize the false positive error probability and test power of a simple thresholding rule for identifying Granger causal effects and provide two methods to set the threshold in a data-driven fashion. We present simulation studies and application to real data to compare the performance of our proposed method to ordinary least squares and existing LASSO-based methods in detecting Granger causal influences, which corroborate our theoretical results.

摘要

相似文献

[1]
Non-Asymptotic Guarantees for Reliable Identification of Granger Causality via the LASSO.

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引用本文的文献

[1]
VARX Granger analysis: Models for neuroscience, physiology, sociology and econometrics.

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[2]
Identifying Brain Network Structure for an fMRI Effective Connectivity Study Using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) Method.

Tomography. 2024-9-30

[3]
NLGC: Network localized Granger causality with application to MEG directional functional connectivity analysis.

Neuroimage. 2022-10-15

本文引用的文献

[1]
Network Granger Causality with Inherent Grouping Structure.

J Mach Learn Res. 2015

[2]
Neural Granger Causality.

IEEE Trans Pattern Anal Mach Intell. 2022-8

[3]
Regularized Joint Estimation of Related Vector Autoregressive Models.

Comput Stat Data Anal. 2019-11

[4]
Detecting and quantifying causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets.

Sci Adv. 2019-11-27

[5]
Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences.

Nat Commun. 2019-6-14

[6]
Quasi-experimental causality in neuroscience and behavioural research.

Nat Hum Behav. 2018-11-26

[7]
Network Homeostasis and State Dynamics of Neocortical Sleep.

Neuron. 2016-5-18

[8]
Identifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems.

Nat Commun. 2015-10-7

[9]
Granger causality analysis in neuroscience and neuroimaging.

J Neurosci. 2015-2-25

[10]
Inferring regulatory networks by combining perturbation screens and steady state gene expression profiles.

PLoS One. 2014-2-28

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