Department of Psychology, Centre for Gambling Research, University of British Columbia.
Psychol Addict Behav. 2024 Sep;38(6):716-727. doi: 10.1037/adb0000999. Epub 2024 May 6.
Near-misses are a structural characteristic of gambling products that can be engineered within modern digital games. Over a series of preregistered experiments using an online slot machine simulation, we investigated the impact of near-miss outcomes on subjective ratings (motivation, valence) and two behavioral measures (speed of gambling, bet size).
Participants were recruited using Prolific and gambled on an online three-reel slot machine simulator that delivered a one in three rate of X-X-O near-misses. Study 1 measured trial-by-trial subjective ratings of valence and motivation (Study 1a, = 169; Study 1b, = 148). Study 2 ( = 170) measured spin initiation latencies as a function of the previous trial outcome. Study 3 ( = 172) measured bet size as a function of the previous trial outcome.
In Study 1a, near-misses increased the motivation to continue gambling relative to full-misses, supporting Hypothesis 1. On valence ratings, near-misses were rated significantly more positively than full-misses, in the opposite direction to Hypothesis 2; this effect was confirmed in a close replication (Study 1b). In Study 2, participants gambled faster following near-misses relative to full-misses, supporting Hypothesis 3. In Study 3, participants significantly increased their bet size following near-misses relative to full-misses, supporting Hypothesis 4.
Across all dependent variables, near-miss outcomes yielded statistically significant differences from objectively equivalent full-miss outcomes, corroborating the "near-miss effect" across both subjective and behavioral measures, and in the environment of online gambling. The unexpected findings on valence ratings are considered in terms of boundary conditions for the near-miss effect, and competing theoretical accounts based on frustration/regret, goal generalization, and skill acquisition. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).
错失机会是赌博产品的一种结构特征，可以在现代数字游戏中进行设计。通过一系列使用在线老虎机模拟的预先注册实验，我们研究了错失机会的结果对主观评价（动机、效价）和两种行为测量（赌博速度、下注大小）的影响。
使用 Prolific 招募参与者，并在在线三卷轴老虎机模拟器上赌博，该模拟器以三分之一的速度提供 X-X-O 错失机会。研究 1 通过逐次试验测量效价和动机的主观评价（研究 1a，N = 169；研究 1b，N = 148）。研究 2（N = 170）测量了前一次试验结果作为 spin 启动潜伏期的函数。研究 3（N = 172）测量了前一次试验结果作为下注大小的函数。
在研究 1a 中，与全失相比，错失机会增加了继续赌博的动机，支持假设 1。在效价评价上，与全失相比，错失机会的评价明显更积极，与假设 2 相反；这一效应在紧密复制（研究 1b）中得到了证实。在研究 2 中，参与者在错失机会后比在全失后赌博速度更快，支持假设 3。在研究 3 中，与全失相比，参与者在错失机会后显著增加了下注大小，支持假设 4。
在所有因变量上，错失机会的结果与客观等效的全失结果存在显著差异，证实了在线赌博环境中主观和行为测量的“错失机会效应”。对效价评价的意外发现被认为是错失机会效应的边界条件，以及基于挫折/遗憾、目标概括和技能习得的竞争理论解释。
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