Nacke Lola, Vinichenko Vadim, Cherp Aleh, Jakhmola Avi, Jewell Jessica
Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Department of Environmental Science and Policy, Central European University, Vienna, Austria.
Nat Commun. 2024 May 7;15(1):3742. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-47667-w.
Coal power phase-out is critical for climate mitigation, yet it harms workers, companies, and coal-dependent regions. We find that more than half of countries that pledge coal phase-out have "just transition" policies which compensate these actors. Compensation is larger in countries with more ambitious coal phase-out pledges and most commonly directed to national and regional governments or companies, with a small share going directly to workers. Globally, compensation amounts to over $200 billion (uncertainty 163-258), about half of which is funded through international schemes, mostly through Just Energy Transition Partnerships and the European Union Just Transition Fund. If similar transfers are extended to China and India to phase out coal in line with the Paris temperature targets, compensation flows could become larger than current international climate financing. Our findings highlight that the socio-political acceptance of coal phase-out has a tangible economic component which should be factored into assessing the feasibility of achieving climate targets.
淘汰煤炭发电对于缓解气候变化至关重要,但这会损害工人、企业以及依赖煤炭的地区。我们发现,承诺淘汰煤炭的国家中,超过半数拥有“公正转型”政策,用以补偿这些相关方。在煤炭淘汰承诺更为雄心勃勃的国家,补偿力度更大,且补偿大多针对国家和地区政府或企业,只有一小部分直接给予工人。在全球范围内,补偿金额超过2000亿美元(不确定性为163 - 258亿美元),其中约一半由国际计划提供资金,主要通过公正能源转型伙伴关系和欧盟公正转型基金。如果将类似的资金转移扩展至中国和印度,以根据巴黎温度目标淘汰煤炭,补偿资金流可能会超过当前的国际气候融资规模。我们的研究结果凸显,淘汰煤炭在社会政治层面的可接受性具有切实的经济因素,在评估实现气候目标的可行性时应将其考虑在内。