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人类流动对 COVID-19 大流行前后年度 18 种呼吸道病毒全市传播动力学的影响。

Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years.

机构信息

Brotman Baty Institute for Precision Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2024 May 16;15(1):4164. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-48528-2.

DOI:10.1038/s41467-024-48528-2
PMID:38755171
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11098821/
Abstract

Many studies have used mobile device location data to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, yet relationships between mobility behavior and endemic respiratory pathogens are less understood. We studied the effects of population mobility on the transmission of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle over a 4-year period, 2018-2022. Before 2020, visits to schools and daycares, within-city mixing, and visitor inflow preceded or coincided with seasonal outbreaks of endemic viruses. Pathogen circulation dropped substantially after the initiation of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in March 2020. During this period, mobility was a positive, leading indicator of transmission of all endemic viruses and lagging and negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 activity. Mobility was briefly predictive of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when restrictions relaxed but associations weakened in subsequent waves. The rebound of endemic viruses was heterogeneously timed but exhibited stronger, longer-lasting relationships with mobility than SARS-CoV-2. Overall, mobility is most predictive of respiratory virus transmission during periods of dramatic behavioral change and at the beginning of epidemic waves.

摘要

许多研究都利用移动设备位置数据来模拟 SARS-CoV-2 的动态，但人们对流动性行为与地方性呼吸道病原体之间的关系了解较少。我们研究了 2018 年至 2022 年期间，人口流动对西雅图 17 种地方性病毒和 SARS-CoV-2 传播的影响。在 2020 年之前，学校和日托中心的访问、市内混合以及访客流入与地方性病毒的季节性爆发同时发生或早于季节性爆发。2020 年 3 月 COVID-19 居家令启动后，病原体循环量大幅下降。在此期间，流动性是所有地方性病毒传播的积极、领先指标，与 SARS-CoV-2 的活动呈滞后负相关。当限制放宽时，流动性对 SARS-CoV-2 传播具有短暂的预测性，但在随后的波次中关联减弱。地方性病毒的反弹时间不同，但与 SARS-CoV-2 相比，与流动性的关系更强、持续时间更长。总体而言，在行为剧烈变化和疫情波次开始时，流动性对呼吸道病毒传播的预测性最强。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/158f/11098821/01c245325bfe/41467_2024_48528_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/158f/11098821/e461ce23c944/41467_2024_48528_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/158f/11098821/c281e0e5de63/41467_2024_48528_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/158f/11098821/75bc665bd344/41467_2024_48528_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/158f/11098821/a27071da773c/41467_2024_48528_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/158f/11098821/01c245325bfe/41467_2024_48528_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/158f/11098821/e461ce23c944/41467_2024_48528_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/158f/11098821/c281e0e5de63/41467_2024_48528_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/158f/11098821/75bc665bd344/41467_2024_48528_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/158f/11098821/a27071da773c/41467_2024_48528_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/158f/11098821/01c245325bfe/41467_2024_48528_Fig5_HTML.jpg

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引用本文的文献

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Global Prevalence of Non-Polio Enteroviruses Pre- and Post COVID-19 Pandemic.

Microorganisms. 2025-8-1

[2]
Assessing the impact of interregional mobility on COVID19 spread in Spain using transfer entropy.

Sci Rep. 2025-8-26

[3]
Characterizing the informativeness of pathogen genome sequence datasets about transmission between population groups.

medRxiv. 2025-8-11

[4]
Epidemiology of Human Metapneumovirus Infection in a Community Setting, Seattle, Washington, USA.

J Infect Dis. 2025-7-16

[5]
Collecting behavioural data across countries during pandemics: Development of the COVID-19 Risk Assessment Tool.

Behav Res Methods. 2025-7-14

[6]
Infectivity and fatality of influenza in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic year.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2025-7-8

[7]
Scenario Projections of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalizations Averted Due to New Immunizations.

JAMA Netw Open. 2025-6-2

[8]
Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US.

Nat Commun. 2025-5-17

[9]
Behavior-driven forecasts of neighborhood-level COVID-19 spread in New York City.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2025-4-29

[10]
Exploring long-term psychological effects of bronchiolitis and influenza in school-aged children.

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本文引用的文献

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