Osman Rehab, El-Gendy Sherif
Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK.
School of Information Technology and Computer Science, Nile University, Cairo, Egypt.
Risk Anal. 2025 Apr;45(4):846-862. doi: 10.1111/risa.14321. Epub 2024 Jun 4.
The burgeoning interconnectedness of global trade in the digital age not only presents enticing opportunities but also harbors potent vulnerabilities of artificial intelligence (AI)-driven cyberattacks. This study explores the cascading impacts of these disruptive threats on economies, supply chains, and trade, utilizing the intricate lens of Computable General Equilibrium modeling. Through meticulously designed simulation scenarios, we illuminate the potential economic ramifications of cyberattacks, with a focus on regions heavily reliant on digital technologies and interwoven supply chains. The analysis reveals significant declines in real GDP, trade prices and volumes, and trade route disruptions across regions. Notably, economies like China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the EU, due to their deep integration in global networks, face pronounced vulnerabilities. However, amidst this bleak landscape, hope emerges in the form of cyber resilience. The study showcases the effectiveness of proactive measures like adaptable production systems, diversified trade partners, and robust cybersecurity infrastructure in mitigating the adverse impacts of cyberattacks. Incorporating cyber resilience significantly dampens the reported negative consequences, highlighting the critical role of preparedness in combating digital warfare. This study underscores the urgent need for a global paradigm shift toward cyber resilience. Collective efforts to bolster cybersecurity infrastructures, foster international cooperation in threat intelligence, and establish open and resilient trade frameworks are crucial in navigating the treacherous labyrinth of AI-driven cyberattacks. By embracing resilience strategies and fostering global collaboration, we can pave the way for a more secure and prosperous digital future, where interconnectedness becomes a tool for progress, not a vulnerability to be exploited.
数字时代全球贸易迅速发展的相互关联性不仅带来了诱人的机遇，也潜藏着人工智能驱动的网络攻击带来的巨大漏洞。本研究利用可计算一般均衡模型这一复杂视角，探讨了这些破坏性威胁对经济、供应链和贸易的连锁影响。通过精心设计的模拟场景，我们阐明了网络攻击可能产生的经济后果，重点关注严重依赖数字技术和相互交织的供应链的地区。分析显示，各地区的实际国内生产总值、贸易价格和数量均大幅下降，贸易路线中断。值得注意的是，中国、美国、英国和欧盟等经济体由于深度融入全球网络，面临着明显的脆弱性。然而，在这一黯淡的形势中，网络韧性带来了希望。该研究展示了适应性生产系统、多元化贸易伙伴和强大的网络安全基础设施等积极措施在减轻网络攻击负面影响方面的有效性。纳入网络韧性显著减轻了报告的负面后果，凸显了防范在应对数字战中的关键作用。本研究强调了全球向网络韧性范式转变的迫切需求。加强网络安全基础设施、促进威胁情报方面的国际合作以及建立开放且有韧性的贸易框架的集体努力，对于在人工智能驱动的网络攻击这一危险迷宫中导航至关重要。通过采用韧性策略并促进全球合作，我们可以为更安全、繁荣的数字未来铺平道路，在这个未来中，相互关联性成为进步的工具，而非可被利用的漏洞。
