Zhao Xiaojing, Li Xuke, Xi Yanling
School of Business (MBA Education Center), Henan University of Science and Technology, 263 Kaiyuan Avenue, Luoyang, 471023, China.
Institute of Ecological Civilization, Tianjin Academy of Social Sciences, Tianjin, 300191, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Jun 6;14(1):12991. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-63977-x.
The inequality in CO emissions from agricultural energy consumption is a major challenge for coordinating low-carbon agricultural development across regions in China. However, the evolutionary characteristics and driving factors of inequality in China's agricultural energy-related CO emissions are poorly understood. In response, the Kaya-Theil model was adopted to examine the three potential factors influencing CO emission inequality in China's agricultural energy consumption. The results revealed that, from 1997 to 2021, agricultural energy-related CO emissions per capita showed a significant upward trend, with prominent polarization and right-tailing phenomena. Overall, the inequality was on a downward trend, with the Theil index falling from 0.4109 in 1997 to 0.1957 in 2021. Meanwhile, the decomposition of the national inequality revealed that the within-group inequality declined from 0.3991 to 0.1634, which was greater than between-group inequality, based on zoning the 28 provinces into three grain production functional areas. As for the three kaya factors, the energy intensity contributed the most to the overall inequality, followed by the agricultural economic development and CO emission intensity. Based on these results, this study provided some potential strategies to reduce agricultural-related CO emissions.
农业能源消费产生的一氧化碳排放不平等是中国跨区域协调低碳农业发展面临的一项重大挑战。然而，中国农业能源相关一氧化碳排放不平等的演变特征和驱动因素尚不清楚。对此，采用了卡亚-泰尔模型来研究影响中国农业能源消费中一氧化碳排放不平等的三个潜在因素。结果显示，1997年至2021年，人均农业能源相关一氧化碳排放呈显著上升趋势，存在明显的两极分化和右尾现象。总体而言，不平等呈下降趋势，泰尔指数从1997年的0.4109降至2021年的0.1957。同时，全国不平等分解结果表明，基于将28个省份划分为三个粮食生产功能区，组内不平等从0.3991降至0.1634，大于组间不平等。至于卡亚三个因素，能源强度对总体不平等的贡献最大，其次是农业经济发展和一氧化碳排放强度。基于这些结果，本研究提出了一些减少农业相关一氧化碳排放的潜在策略。
