• 文献检索
  • 文档翻译
  • 深度研究
  • 学术资讯
  • Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
  • 邀请有礼
  • 套餐&价格
  • 历史记录
应用&插件
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
定价
高级版会员购买积分包购买API积分包
服务
文献检索文档翻译深度研究API 文档MCP 服务
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利：CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2026

文献检索

告别复杂PubMed语法，用中文像聊天一样搜索，搜遍4000万医学文献。AI智能推荐，让科研检索更轻松。

立即免费搜索

文件翻译

保留排版，准确专业，支持PDF/Word/PPT等文件格式，支持 12+语言互译。

免费翻译文档

深度研究

AI帮你快速写综述，25分钟生成高质量综述，智能提取关键信息，辅助科研写作。

立即免费体验

跨境流动对北欧国家 COVID-19 疫情的影响。

The influence of cross-border mobility on the COVID-19 epidemic in Nordic countries.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland.

Oslo Center for Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway.

出版信息

PLoS Comput Biol. 2024 Jun 12;20(6):e1012182. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012182. eCollection 2024 Jun.

DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012182
PMID:38865414
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11198903/
Abstract

Restrictions of cross-border mobility are typically used to prevent an emerging disease from entering a country in order to slow down its spread. However, such interventions can come with a significant societal cost and should thus be based on careful analysis and quantitative understanding on their effects. To this end, we model the influence of cross-border mobility on the spread of COVID-19 during 2020 in the neighbouring Nordic countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. We investigate the immediate impact of cross-border travel on disease spread and employ counterfactual scenarios to explore the cumulative effects of introducing additional infected individuals into a population during the ongoing epidemic. Our results indicate that the effect of inter-country mobility on epidemic growth is non-negligible essentially when there is sizeable mobility from a high prevalence country or countries to a low prevalence one. Our findings underscore the critical importance of accurate data and models on both epidemic progression and travel patterns in informing decisions related to inter-country mobility restrictions.

摘要

跨境流动限制通常用于防止新发疾病进入一个国家，以减缓其传播。然而，这种干预措施可能会带来重大的社会成本，因此应该基于对其影响的仔细分析和定量理解。为此，我们对 2020 年期间丹麦、芬兰、挪威和瑞典这四个北欧邻国的 COVID-19 跨境流动传播进行建模。我们研究了跨境旅行对疾病传播的即时影响，并采用反事实情景来探索在疫情持续期间将额外的感染者引入人群中所产生的累积效应。结果表明，当从高流行国家或国家向低流行国家有大量的人口流动时，国家间的移动对疫情的增长有着不可忽视的影响。我们的研究结果强调了准确的数据和模型对于了解与国家间流动限制相关的决策至关重要，这些模型需要同时考虑到疾病的传播进程和旅行模式。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/72850c0a602c/pcbi.1012182.g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/1292cf8f50ff/pcbi.1012182.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/9d3db341e455/pcbi.1012182.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/8bf50a08fdb6/pcbi.1012182.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/c7543e6e6435/pcbi.1012182.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/d440ea84490b/pcbi.1012182.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/bc123e7679e5/pcbi.1012182.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/413cb0af64ce/pcbi.1012182.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/33053cf9d8d2/pcbi.1012182.g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/72850c0a602c/pcbi.1012182.g009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/1292cf8f50ff/pcbi.1012182.g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/9d3db341e455/pcbi.1012182.g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/8bf50a08fdb6/pcbi.1012182.g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/c7543e6e6435/pcbi.1012182.g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/d440ea84490b/pcbi.1012182.g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/bc123e7679e5/pcbi.1012182.g006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/413cb0af64ce/pcbi.1012182.g007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/33053cf9d8d2/pcbi.1012182.g008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7612/11198903/72850c0a602c/pcbi.1012182.g009.jpg

相似文献

1
The influence of cross-border mobility on the COVID-19 epidemic in Nordic countries.跨境流动对北欧国家 COVID-19 疫情的影响。
PLoS Comput Biol. 2024 Jun 12;20(6):e1012182. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012182. eCollection 2024 Jun.
2
International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review.国际旅行相关防控措施以遏制 COVID-19 大流行：快速综述。
Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2021 Mar 25;3(3):CD013717. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD013717.pub2.
3
Travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review.旅行相关的控制措施以遏制 COVID-19 大流行：快速综述。
Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2020 Oct 5;10:CD013717. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD013717.
4
Early suppression policies protected pregnant women from COVID-19 in 2020: A population-based surveillance from the Nordic countries.2020 年早期抑制政策保护孕妇免受 COVID-19 感染：来自北欧国家的基于人群的监测。
Acta Obstet Gynecol Scand. 2024 Jun;103(6):1063-1072. doi: 10.1111/aogs.14808. Epub 2024 Feb 21.
5
Effect of internationally imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.国际输入病例对 COVID-19 内部传播的影响：一项数学建模研究。
Lancet Public Health. 2021 Jan;6(1):e12-e20. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30263-2. Epub 2020 Dec 7.
6
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer diagnosis based on pathology notifications: A comparison across the Nordic countries during 2020.基于病理通知的 COVID-19 大流行对癌症诊断的影响：2020 年北欧国家的比较。
Int J Cancer. 2022 Aug 1;151(3):381-395. doi: 10.1002/ijc.34029. Epub 2022 Apr 25.
7
Mobility and COVID-19 mortality across Scandinavia: A modeling study.斯堪的纳维亚各地的流动性与 COVID-19 死亡率：一项建模研究。
Travel Med Infect Dis. 2021 May-Jun;41:102039. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102039. Epub 2021 Mar 27.
8
Sufficient COVID-19 quarantine and testing on international travelers to forestall cross-border transmission after China's removal of the zero-COVID policy in early 2023.足够的 COVID-19 隔离和国际旅行者检测，以防止中国在 2023 年初取消零 COVID 政策后发生跨境传播。
Int J Infect Dis. 2024 Aug;145:107097. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2024.107097. Epub 2024 May 14.
9
On the Threshold of Release of Confinement in an Epidemic SEIR Model Taking into Account the Protective Effect of Mask.考虑口罩保护作用的传染病 SEIR 模型中禁闭解除的门槛。
Bull Math Biol. 2021 Feb 17;83(4):25. doi: 10.1007/s11538-021-00858-8.
10
Unraveling the dynamics of loneliness in the Baltic-Nordic region: a comparative analysis in the wake of COVID-19.揭示波罗的海-北欧地区孤独动态：新冠疫情后的比较分析。
Front Public Health. 2024 Apr 22;12:1360285. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1360285. eCollection 2024.

本文引用的文献

1
Impact of cross-border-associated cases on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Switzerland during summer 2020 and 2021.2020 年和 2021 年夏季瑞士 SARS-CoV-2 疫情中跨境相关病例的影响。
Epidemics. 2022 Dec;41:100654. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100654. Epub 2022 Nov 17.
2
Heterogeneity in the onwards transmission risk between local and imported cases affects practical estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number.本地病例和输入性病例之间的继续传播风险的异质性影响了时变繁殖数的实际估计。
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2022 Oct 3;380(2233):20210308. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0308. Epub 2022 Aug 15.
3
Genomic epidemiology of the first two waves of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada.
加拿大 SARS-CoV-2 前两波的基因组流行病学。
Elife. 2022 Aug 2;11:e73896. doi: 10.7554/eLife.73896.
4
Relating Eulerian and Lagrangian spatial models for vector-host disease dynamics through a fundamental matrix.通过基本矩阵将拉格朗日和欧拉空间模型联系起来，用于研究载体-宿主疾病动力学。
J Math Biol. 2022 Jun 9;84(7):57. doi: 10.1007/s00285-022-01761-z.
5
Adaptive and optimized COVID-19 vaccination strategies across geographical regions and age groups.跨地理区域和年龄组的适应性和优化的 COVID-19 疫苗接种策略。
PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 Apr 7;18(4):e1009974. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009974. eCollection 2022 Apr.
6
Travel measures in the SARS-CoV-2 variant era need clear objectives.在新冠病毒变异株时代的旅行措施需要明确的目标。
Lancet. 2022 Apr 9;399(10333):1367-1369. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(22)00366-X. Epub 2022 Mar 2.
7
Assessment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Intervention Strategies in the Nordic Countries Using Genomic Epidemiology.利用基因组流行病学评估北欧国家2019冠状病毒病的干预策略
Open Forum Infect Dis. 2022 Jan 3;9(3):ofab665. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofab665. eCollection 2022 Mar.
8
Did border closures slow SARS-CoV-2?边境关闭是否减缓了 SARS-CoV-2 的传播？
Sci Rep. 2022 Feb 1;12(1):1709. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-05482-7.
9
The impact of public health interventions in the Nordic countries during the first year of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and evolution.新冠病毒传播和演变的第一年中北欧国家公共卫生干预的影响。
Euro Surveill. 2021 Nov;26(44). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.44.2001996.
10
Comparing the responses of the UK, Sweden and Denmark to COVID-19 using counterfactual modelling.运用反事实模型比较英国、瑞典和丹麦对 COVID-19 的应对措施。
Sci Rep. 2021 Aug 11;11(1):16342. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-95699-9.