Chang'an University, Xi'an 710061, China.
School of Architecture, Chang'an University, Xi'an 710061, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Oct 15;947:173892. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173892. Epub 2024 Jun 13.
The rapid advancement of global economic integration and urbanization has severely damaged the stability of the ecological environment and hindered the ecological carbon sink capacity. In this study, we evaluated the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of landscape ecological risk (LER) in the Loess Plateau from 2010 to 2020. This was examined under the driving mechanism of human and natural dual factors. We combined the random forest algorithm with the Markov chain to jointly simulate and predict the development trend of LER in 2030. From 2010 to 2020, LER on the Loess Plateau showed a distribution pattern with higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest. Under the interaction of human and natural factors, annual precipitation exerted the strongest constraint on LER. The driving of land use and natural factors significantly influenced the spatial differentiation of the LER, with a q-value >0.30. In all three projected scenarios for 2030, there was an increase in construction land area and a significant reduction in cultivated land area. The urban development scenario showed the greatest expansion of high-risk areas, with a 5.29 % increase. Conversely, the ecological protection scenario showed a 1.53 % increase in high-risk areas. The findings have provided a reference for ecological risk prevention and control, and sustainable development of the ecological environment in arid regions.
全球经济一体化和城市化的快速发展，严重破坏了生态环境的稳定性，阻碍了生态碳汇能力。本研究评估了 2010 年至 2020 年黄土高原景观生态风险（LER）的时空演变格局。在人为和自然双重因素的驱动机制下进行了研究。我们结合随机森林算法和马尔可夫链，共同模拟和预测了 2030 年 LER 的发展趋势。2010 年至 2020 年，黄土高原的 LER 呈现出东南高西北低的分布格局。在人为和自然因素的相互作用下，年降水量对 LER 的约束作用最强。土地利用和自然因素的驱动显著影响了 LER 的空间分异，q 值>0.30。在 2030 年的所有三个预测情景中，建设用地面积增加，耕地面积显著减少。城市发展情景显示高风险区扩张最大，增长了 5.29%。相反，生态保护情景显示高风险区增加了 1.53%。研究结果为干旱地区的生态风险防控和生态环境的可持续发展提供了参考。
