Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Pandemic Centre, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
J Clin Epidemiol. 2024 Sep;173:111428. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2024.111428. Epub 2024 Jun 17.
Consensus statements can be very influential in medicine and public health. Some of these statements use systematic evidence synthesis but others fail on this front. Many consensus statements use panels of experts to deduce perceived consensus through Delphi processes. We argue that stacking of panel members toward one particular position or narrative is a major threat, especially in absence of systematic evidence review. Stacking may involve financial conflicts of interest, but nonfinancial conflicts of strong advocacy can also cause major bias. Given their emerging importance, we describe here how such consensus statements may be misleading, by analyzing in depth a recent high-impact Delphi consensus statement on COVID-19 recommendations as a case example. We demonstrate that many of the selected panel members and at least 35% of the core panel members had advocated toward COVID-19 elimination (Zero-COVID) during the pandemic and were leading members of aggressive advocacy groups. These advocacy conflicts were not declared in the Delphi consensus publication, with rare exceptions. Therefore, we propose that consensus statements should always require rigorous evidence synthesis and maximal transparency on potential biases toward advocacy or lobbyist groups to be valid. While advocacy can have many important functions, its biased impact on consensus panels should be carefully avoided.
共识声明在医学和公共卫生领域具有很大的影响力。其中一些声明使用系统的证据综合,但其他声明在这方面失败了。许多共识声明使用专家小组通过 Delphi 流程来推断所谓的共识。我们认为,小组成员向一个特定立场或叙述倾斜是一个主要威胁,尤其是在缺乏系统证据审查的情况下。这种倾斜可能涉及财务利益冲突,但强烈倡导的非财务利益冲突也可能导致重大偏见。鉴于它们日益重要,我们在这里通过深入分析最近一项关于 COVID-19 建议的高影响力 Delphi 共识声明,来描述此类共识声明可能产生误导的原因,将其作为案例示例。我们表明,许多选定的小组成员,以及至少 35%的核心小组成员,在大流行期间一直倡导消除(零 COVID),并且是积极倡导团体的主要成员。这些倡导冲突在 Delphi 共识声明中并未被公开披露,只有极少数例外。因此,我们建议共识声明应该始终要求严格的证据综合,并在潜在的偏向于倡导或游说团体的偏见方面保持最大的透明度,才能具有有效性。虽然倡导可以有许多重要的功能,但应该谨慎避免其对共识小组产生有偏见的影响。