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中国碳排放和健康损害的源贡献存在显著差异,因此需要制定平衡的协同控制计划。

Substantial differences in source contributions to carbon emissions and health damage necessitate balanced synergistic control plans in China.

作者信息

Chen Yilin, Shen Huizhong, Shen Guofeng, Ma Jianmin, Cheng Yafang, Russell Armistead G, Zhao Shunliu, Hakami Amir, Tao Shu

机构信息

School of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, 518055, China.

Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Precision Measurement and Early Warning Technology for Urban Environmental Health Risks, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China.

出版信息

Nat Commun. 2024 Jul 13;15(1):5880. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-50327-8.

Abstract

China's strategy to concurrently address climate change and air pollution mitigation is hindered by a lack of comprehensive information on source contributions to health damage and carbon emissions. Here we show notable discrepancies between source contributions to CO emissions and fine particulate matter (PM)-related mortality by using adjoint emission sensitivity modeling to attribute premature mortality in 2017 to 53 sector and fuel/process combinations with high spatial resolution. Our findings reveal that monetized PM health damage exceeds climate impacts in over half of the analyzed subsectors. In addition to coal-fired energy generators and industrial boilers, the combined health and climate costs from energy-intensive processes, diesel-powered vehicles, domestic coal combustion, and agricultural activities exceed 100 billion US dollars, with health-related costs predominating. This research highlights the critical need to integrate the social costs of health damage with climate impacts to develop more balanced mitigation strategies toward these dual goals, particularly during fuel transition and industrial structure upgrading.

摘要

由于缺乏有关源对健康损害和碳排放贡献的全面信息,中国同时应对气候变化和减轻空气污染的战略受到阻碍。在此,我们通过使用伴随排放敏感性模型,将2017年的过早死亡归因于53个具有高空间分辨率的部门和燃料/工艺组合,从而展示了源对一氧化碳排放和细颗粒物(PM)相关死亡率的贡献之间存在显著差异。我们的研究结果表明,在超过一半的分析子部门中,货币化的PM健康损害超过了气候影响。除了燃煤能源发电机和工业锅炉外,能源密集型工艺、柴油动力车辆、家庭煤炭燃烧和农业活动的健康与气候综合成本超过1000亿美元,其中与健康相关的成本占主导。这项研究突出了将健康损害的社会成本与气候影响相结合的迫切需求,以便针对这些双重目标制定更平衡的缓解战略,特别是在燃料转型和产业结构升级期间。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/50be/11245606/a66d8882c5d2/41467_2024_50327_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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