Qiu Yueming Lucy, Deng Nana, Wang Bo, Shen Xingchi, Wang Zhaohua, Hultman Nathan, Shi Han, Liu Jie, Wang Yi David
School of Public Policy, University of Maryland at College Park, College Park, MD, 20742, USA.
School of Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China.
Nat Commun. 2024 Jul 18;15(1):6041. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-50447-1.
Electrification plays a crucial role in deep decarbonization. However, electrification and power infrastructure can cause mutual challenges. We use nationwide power outage and electric vehicle adoption data in China to provide empirical evidence on how power infrastructure failures can deter electrification. We find that when the number of power outages per district increases by 1 in a given month, the number of new electric vehicles adopted per month decreases by 0.99%. A doubling of power outages in one year on average across the nation can create a depressed adoption rate for up to a decade, implying a decline of more than $ 31.3 million per year in carbon reduction benefits from electric vehicle adoptions. This paper adds to the policy discussion of the costs of increased power outages due to extreme weather and natural disasters, and the urgency for policy to address this issue to facilitate wide adoption of electrification.
电气化在深度脱碳中起着至关重要的作用。然而，电气化和电力基础设施可能会带来相互挑战。我们利用中国全国范围的停电和电动汽车采用数据，为电力基础设施故障如何阻碍电气化提供实证证据。我们发现，在给定月份中，每个地区的停电次数每增加1次，每月新采用的电动汽车数量就会减少0.99%。全国范围内一年平均停电次数翻倍会导致采用率在长达十年的时间里处于低迷状态，这意味着电动汽车采用带来的每年碳减排效益将减少超过3130万美元。本文补充了关于极端天气和自然灾害导致停电增加的成本的政策讨论，以及政策解决这一问题以促进电气化广泛采用的紧迫性。
