Projected number of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany between 2015 and 2040.

BACKGROUND

The global prevalence of multiple sclerosis has shown a marked rise in recent decades, with Germany reporting the highest prevalence among European countries. This study aims to project the future number of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany until 2040 which is necessary for effective resource allocation and health care planning.

METHODS

Based on data from the German statutory health insurance, the age- and sex-specific prevalence of multiple sclerosis was estimated applying mathematical relations between prevalence, incidence rate, and mortality rate. Subsequently, the projected prevalence was applied to the age structure of the German population between 2015 and 2040 to calculate the future number of people with multiple sclerosis. Several temporal trend scenarios pertaining to the incidence and mortality rate were compared.

RESULTS

Application of current age-specific prevalence estimates combined with the projected population structure in 2040, results in a decline of 8% in the number of people with multiple sclerosis. More realistic scenarios that reflect on trends in mortality and incidence rates, project between 453,000 (+75%) and 477,000 (+85%) multiple sclerosis cases in 2040. It is expected that females will be affected nearly 2.5 times more frequently than males in 2040.

CONCLUSION

The findings indicate a substantial rise in the prevalence of multiple sclerosis, ranging from 75% to 85% in 2040 compared to 2015. Assuming a constant age-specific prevalence between 2015 and 2040 without any temporal trends in mortality and incidence rates may underestimate the actual number of cases and consequently, future requirements for healthcare resources.