Eltemasi Mahshid, Behtooiey Hassan
Information Science & Knowledge Management, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Meteorology, Faculty of Earth Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
Heliyon. 2024 Jun 19;10(13):e33228. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e33228. eCollection 2024 Jul 15.
This study investigates the relationship between wind speed, climatic conditions, and road accidents in Iran, focusing on the type of accidents and collisions. The research aims to identify the causes of accidents and provide insights for prediction and decision-making purposes. The study adopts a developmental research approach, analyzing road accident data and wind speed data. Logistic regression is employed to investigate the correlation between wind speed and the type of accidents and collisions. Data mining techniques, specifically the J48 decision tree algorithm, are used to examine the relationship patterns among wind speed, climatic conditions, collision types, and accident types. Additionally, texts and articles related to atmospheric hazards and road accidents are studied, and interviews are conducted with road accident experts and drivers to extract insights into the causes of road accidents in Iran. The findings indicate that wind speed does not have a direct and significant effect on the type of accidents (fatal or non-fatal), but it does influence the type of collisions in road accidents. The decision tree analysis reveals patterns in the relationships between weather conditions, wind speed, collision types, and accident types, enabling the prediction of collision probabilities in different scenarios. The causes of road accidents in Iran are categorized into human factors, secondary causes, and unique causes. Based on the findings, several recommendations are proposed to enhance road safety and reduce accidents in Iran.
本研究调查了伊朗风速、气候条件与道路事故之间的关系，重点关注事故和碰撞的类型。该研究旨在确定事故原因，并为预测和决策提供见解。研究采用发展性研究方法，分析道路事故数据和风速数据。运用逻辑回归来研究风速与事故及碰撞类型之间的相关性。数据挖掘技术，特别是J48决策树算法，用于检验风速、气候条件、碰撞类型和事故类型之间的关系模式。此外，还研究了与大气危害和道路事故相关的文本和文章，并与道路事故专家和司机进行了访谈，以深入了解伊朗道路事故的原因。研究结果表明，风速对事故类型（致命或非致命）没有直接且显著的影响，但它确实会影响道路事故中的碰撞类型。决策树分析揭示了天气条件、风速、碰撞类型和事故类型之间关系的模式，从而能够预测不同场景下的碰撞概率。伊朗道路事故的原因分为人为因素、次要原因和独特原因。基于研究结果，提出了若干建议以提高伊朗的道路安全并减少事故。
