Hu Xiaohao, Lin Xiaocong, Dai Zhangsheng, Fang Kaibin
Department of Pediatrics, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, 362000, China.
Department of Sports Medicine, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, 362000, China.
BMC Pediatr. 2025 May 24;25(1):416. doi: 10.1186/s12887-025-05767-6.
Pediatric fracture are a significant public health concern, contributing to both immediate health impacts and long-term disability. This study aims to quantify the burden of pediatric fracture over a 30-year period (1992-2021) and provide forecasts for future disease burden.
Comprehensive data on pediatric fracture from 1992 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study. This dataset includes information on the incidence of pediatric fracture, disaggregated by gender. The Joinpoint regression model was used to identify turning points in epidemiological trends, while decomposition analysis helped identify the factors driving these trends. Health inequalities related to pediatric fracture were assessed using the Slope Index and Concentration Index. To forecast future incidence rates, the Norpred and BAPC models were applied.
The global ASIR of pediatric fracture was 2225.38 in 1992 and 1531.44 in 2021. The total number of pediatric fracture globally was 39,436,228 in 1992 and 31,033,294 in 2021. The results of the Joinpoint regression indicate a declining trend in the incidence of pediatric fracture globally and in all SDI regions, for both male and female children. Based on the Nordpred and BAPC model, the predicted age-standardized incidence rate for pediatric fracture by 2046 is 1347.61-1349.43. The total number of pediatric fracture predicted by 2046 is 25,048,299-25,123,204.
Over the past three decades, the global incidence of pediatric fractures has declined. However, population growth has sustained a substantial disease burden, underscoring the necessity for effective prevention and management strategies.
儿童骨折是一个重大的公共卫生问题，会对近期健康产生影响，并导致长期残疾。本研究旨在量化30年期间（1992 - 2021年）儿童骨折的负担，并对未来的疾病负担进行预测。
从全球疾病负担研究中获取了1992年至2021年关于儿童骨折的综合数据。该数据集包括按性别分类的儿童骨折发病率信息。采用Joinpoint回归模型确定流行病学趋势的转折点，同时分解分析有助于确定推动这些趋势的因素。使用斜率指数和集中指数评估与儿童骨折相关的健康不平等情况。为预测未来发病率，应用了Norpred和BAPC模型。
1992年儿童骨折的全球年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）为2225.38，2021年为1531.44。1992年全球儿童骨折总数为39436228例，2021年为31033294例。Joinpoint回归结果表明，全球以及所有社会人口指数（SDI）地区的男童和女童骨折发病率均呈下降趋势。根据Norpred和BAPC模型，到2046年儿童骨折的预测年龄标准化发病率为1347.61 - 1349.43。预计到2046年儿童骨折总数为25048299 - 25123204例。
在过去三十年中，全球儿童骨折发病率有所下降。然而，人口增长使疾病负担持续存在，凸显了有效预防和管理策略的必要性。
